MU
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- MU −2.05% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −2.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Reported 4Q2026 Sep 30 after the close: EPS $33.42 vs $31.82 expected (beat, +$1.60, +5.0%); revenue $54.2B. The stock moved +3.0% on Thu's session (+2.9 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, earnings beat (Oct 1): After its 18 earnings beats in the past 5 years, MU typically lost 0.5% over the next day (median) and was higher only 44% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -2.0% and +3.0%. An ordinary day: +0.1%. Among S&P 500 stocks after earnings beats, that ranks #326 of 497.
- 34 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 72% positive over the week.
- 11 analyst actions in the past 10 days (4 positive, 0 negative); latest: Rosenblatt maintained Buy, raised target $1,500 → $1,900.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.1%#172 H | +0.7%#87 H | +4.1%#11 H | +9.0%#63 M |
| Big drop (-4.2% or worse) | 65 | -0.1%#290 H | 0.0%#295 H | +3.3%#134 H | +8.3%#215 M |
| Big gain (+5.6% or better) | 75 | +0.3%#144 H | +2.2%#21 H | +3.8%#132 H | +16.8%#113 M |
| Earnings beat Oct 1 | 18 | -0.5%#326 M | 0.0%#245 M | +0.9%#253 M | +8.3%#184 M |
| Earnings miss | 2 | +0.4%– | -4.5%– | +13.1%– | +11.3%– |
| 52-week high | 14 | -0.4%#267 M | +3.4%#62 M | +9.0%#163 M | +34.6%#109 L |
| 52-week low | 1 | -12.9%– | -5.8%– | +8.2%– | +61.5%– |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 6 | -1.3%#463 L | -2.5%#453 L | -4.8%#366 L | -5.0%#332 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 5 | -2.5%#391 L | +0.4%#249 L | +1.0%#250 L | +7.6%#189 L |
| RSI oversold | 4 | +1.1%#242 L | -2.4%#342 L | +10.6%#104 L | +0.6%#272 L |
| RSI overbought | 21 | -0.9%#484 H | +2.9%#129 H | +10.5%#131 M | +14.3%#92 M |
| Reddit spike Oct 1 | 50 | +1.2%#6 H | +0.7%#32 H | +4.0%#19 H | +21.2%#2 M |
| Analyst upgrade | 3 | +4.0%#8 L | +0.7%#8 L | +27.9%#5 L | +65.9%– |
| Analyst downgrade | 1 | +5.5%– | +3.4%– | +23.5%– | +75.5%– |
| Insider buy | 1 | +0.6%– | +7.3%– | +16.0%– | +23.7%– |
| Insider unplanned sale | 12 | -1.3%#26 M | +4.7%#5 M | +12.2%#7 M | +25.2%#5 L |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is MU's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Big drop (-4.2% or worse)
A daily fall among the stock's own worst 10% of the prior 2 years.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 65 | -0.10% (-0.4 to +1.1) | High | #290 of 500 | 49% | -0.29% |
-16%
+9%
|
|
| 1 week | 65 | -0.01% (-1.7 to +1.6) | High | #295 of 500 | 49% | -0.50% |
-20%
+27%
|
|
| 1 month | 64 ≈40 indep. | +3.35% (-1.9 to +4.5) | High | #134 of 500 | 58% | +1.85% |
-31%
+83%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 60 ≈14 indep. | +8.33% (+3.1 to +30.7) | Medium | #215 of 499 | 70% | +7.24% |
-38%
+259%
|
Range of outcomes: all of MU's big drops in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Big drop by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 44 | +0.1%H vs +0.1% | 0.0%H vs +1.0% | +4.0%H vs +5.9% | +31.2%M vs +21.5% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 21 | -0.2%H vs +0.1% | -0.7%H vs +0.6% | -1.9%M vs +1.0% | +2.9%L vs +3.1% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 39 | -0.2%H vs 0.0% | 0.0%H vs 0.0% | +0.7%H vs +2.8% | +6.1%M vs +14.8% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 26 | +0.2%H vs +0.3% | -0.4%H vs +1.8% | +6.0%M vs +4.5% | +11.0%M vs +2.0% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 36 | -0.2%H vs +0.1% | 0.0%H vs +0.6% | +2.8%H vs +3.6% | +6.1%M vs +10.5% |
| Below its 20-day avg | 29 | +0.1%H vs +0.2% | 0.0%H vs +1.2% | +5.0%H vs +4.6% | +13.0%M vs +5.5% |
The same event split by where MU stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest big drops
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 10 @ $977.41 | -4.9% on the day (line -4.2%) | -0.2% | 0.0% | … | … |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Aug 18 @ $940.76 | -7.0% on the day (line -4.2%) | -0.4% | -0.8% | +3.9% | … |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Jul 24 @ $920.95 | -7.0% on the day (line -4.2%) | -2.3% | -10.6% | -1.1% | … |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Jul 15 @ $904.28 | -8.0% on the day (line -4.2%) | -5.6% | +6.1% | +5.0% | … |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Jul 7 @ $938.38 | -4.7% on the day (line -4.0%) | +1.1% | +4.8% | -4.8% | … |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Jun 26 @ $1,132.16 | -6.7% on the day (line -4.0%) | +1.1% | -13.0% | -27.5% | -4.4% |
| Jun 16, 2026 | Jun 16 @ $1,020.60 | -6.2% on the day (line -3.9%) | +2.2% | +2.7% | -16.8% | -9.2% |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Jun 4 @ $995.85 | -7.7% on the day (line -3.8%) | -13.3% | 0.0% | -5.8% | -3.8% |
| May 15, 2026 | May 15 @ $724.55 | -6.6% on the day (line -3.8%) | -6.0% | +3.6% | +40.9% | +39.6% |
| Apr 28, 2026 | Apr 28 @ $504.21 | -3.9% on the day (line -3.8%) | +2.8% | +27.0% | +83.1% | +46.6% |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Mar 30 @ $321.75 | -9.9% on the day (line -3.8%) | +5.0% | +17.3% | +61.1% | +258.7% |
| Mar 19, 2026 | Mar 19 @ $444.02 | -3.8% on the day (line -3.8%) | -4.8% | -20.0% | +1.0% | +155.4% |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Mar 3 @ $379.46 | -8.0% on the day (line -3.7%) | +5.6% | +6.2% | -3.1% | +180.4% |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Jan 30 @ $414.64 | -4.8% on the day (line -3.7%) | +5.5% | -4.9% | -8.5% | +30.7% |
| Jan 8, 2026 | Jan 8 @ $326.83 | -3.7% on the day (line -3.6%) | +5.5% | +2.9% | +17.3% | +28.7% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.