MU
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- MU −2.05% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −2.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Reported 4Q2026 Sep 30 after the close: EPS $33.42 vs $31.82 expected (beat, +$1.60, +5.0%); revenue $54.2B. The stock moved +3.0% on Thu's session (+2.9 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, earnings beat (Oct 1): After its 18 earnings beats in the past 5 years, MU typically lost 0.5% over the next day (median) and was higher only 44% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -2.0% and +3.0%. An ordinary day: +0.1%. Among S&P 500 stocks after earnings beats, that ranks #326 of 497.
- 34 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 72% positive over the week.
- 11 analyst actions in the past 10 days (4 positive, 0 negative); latest: Rosenblatt maintained Buy, raised target $1,500 → $1,900.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.1%#172 H | +0.7%#87 H | +4.1%#11 H | +9.0%#63 M |
| Big drop (-4.2% or worse) | 65 | -0.1%#290 H | 0.0%#295 H | +3.3%#134 H | +8.3%#215 M |
| Big gain (+5.6% or better) | 75 | +0.3%#144 H | +2.2%#21 H | +3.8%#132 H | +16.8%#113 M |
| Earnings beat Oct 1 | 18 | -0.5%#326 M | 0.0%#245 M | +0.9%#253 M | +8.3%#184 M |
| Earnings miss | 2 | +0.4%– | -4.5%– | +13.1%– | +11.3%– |
| 52-week high | 14 | -0.4%#267 M | +3.4%#62 M | +9.0%#163 M | +34.6%#109 L |
| 52-week low | 1 | -12.9%– | -5.8%– | +8.2%– | +61.5%– |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 6 | -1.3%#463 L | -2.5%#453 L | -4.8%#366 L | -5.0%#332 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 5 | -2.5%#391 L | +0.4%#249 L | +1.0%#250 L | +7.6%#189 L |
| RSI oversold | 4 | +1.1%#242 L | -2.4%#342 L | +10.6%#104 L | +0.6%#272 L |
| RSI overbought | 21 | -0.9%#484 H | +2.9%#129 H | +10.5%#131 M | +14.3%#92 M |
| Reddit spike Oct 1 | 50 | +1.2%#6 H | +0.7%#32 H | +4.0%#19 H | +21.2%#2 M |
| Analyst upgrade | 3 | +4.0%#8 L | +0.7%#8 L | +27.9%#5 L | +65.9%– |
| Analyst downgrade | 1 | +5.5%– | +3.4%– | +23.5%– | +75.5%– |
| Insider buy | 1 | +0.6%– | +7.3%– | +16.0%– | +23.7%– |
| Insider unplanned sale | 12 | -1.3%#26 M | +4.7%#5 M | +12.2%#7 M | +25.2%#5 L |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is MU's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
RSI overbought
The 14-day RSI rises above 70.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 21 | -0.95% (-1.2 to 0.0) | High | #484 of 501 | 38% | -0.80% |
-5%
+9%
|
|
| 1 week | 21 | +2.92% (-1.2 to +6.4) | High | #129 of 501 | 57% | +0.61% |
-12%
+19%
|
|
| 1 month | 21 ≈19 indep. | +10.51% (+1.5 to +17.2) | Medium | #131 of 501 | 67% | +8.51% |
-14%
+77%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 21 ≈11 indep. | +14.25% (+4.8 to +27.2) | Medium | #92 of 501 | 76% | +14.25% |
-36%
+88%
|
Range of outcomes: all of MU's overbought readings in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
RSI overbought by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 18 | -1.0%M vs +0.1% | +3.5%M vs +1.0% | +7.3%M vs +5.9% | +21.8%M vs +21.5% |
| Below its 200-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 19 | -0.9%M vs 0.0% | +2.9%M vs 0.0% | +4.1%M vs +2.8% | +19.8%M vs +14.8% |
| Below its 50-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 21 | -0.9%H vs +0.1% | +2.9%H vs +0.6% | +10.5%M vs +3.6% | +14.3%M vs +10.5% |
| Below its 20-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
The same event split by where MU stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest overbought readings
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 26, 2026 | May 26 @ $895.74 | RSI 74.9, +19.3% on the day | +3.6% | +18.8% | +35.5% | +4.2% |
| Apr 27, 2026 | Apr 27 @ $524.48 | RSI 73.2, +5.6% on the day | -3.9% | +9.9% | +77.0% | +56.4% |
| Jan 2, 2026 | Jan 2 @ $315.24 | RSI 72.0, +10.5% on the day | -1.0% | +9.4% | +33.0% | +19.8% |
| Nov 10, 2025 | Nov 10 @ $253.05 | RSI 73.9, +6.5% on the day | -4.8% | -4.5% | +4.1% | +62.1% |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Oct 20 @ $206.57 | RSI 71.1, +2.2% on the day | -2.2% | +6.4% | +10.5% | +88.3% |
| Sep 30, 2025 | Sep 30 @ $167.05 | RSI 70.8, +2.1% on the day | +8.9% | +11.0% | +35.5% | +75.1% |
| Sep 9, 2025 | Sep 9 @ $135.02 | RSI 70.2, +2.9% on the day | +3.5% | +17.4% | +45.4% | +82.7% |
| Jun 5, 2025 | Jun 5 @ $106.02 | RSI 72.7, +2.9% on the day | +2.1% | +9.3% | +17.2% | +23.7% |
| May 13, 2025 | May 13 @ $96.68 | RSI 71.4, +5.0% on the day | -1.7% | +1.2% | +19.9% | +28.3% |
| Jun 13, 2024 | Jun 13 @ $142.12 | RSI 70.6, +1.7% on the day | -1.2% | -2.5% | -10.9% | -36.2% |
| Apr 11, 2024 | Apr 11 @ $126.60 | RSI 73.8, +4.3% on the day | -3.9% | -12.2% | -4.9% | +4.8% |
| Mar 21, 2024 | Mar 21 @ $108.96 | RSI 74.4, +14.1% on the day | +0.3% | +7.4% | -0.6% | +27.1% |
| Mar 4, 2024 | Mar 4 @ $95.00 | RSI 70.3, +0.7% on the day | -1.4% | -1.3% | +33.8% | +34.0% |
| Dec 14, 2023 | Dec 14 @ $81.42 | RSI 72.9, +3.0% on the day | -0.9% | +4.0% | +1.5% | +14.3% |
| Nov 10, 2023 | Nov 10 @ $74.65 | RSI 70.9, +2.4% on the day | -0.8% | +2.9% | +3.7% | +8.3% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.