NFLX
Up on positive analyst calls and sentiment
- NFLX +3.05% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +3.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Tue after the close: EPS $0.82 expected (35 analysts); it moved ±7.1% on average after its last 8 reports.
- News: Wall Street analysts reshuffled Netflix targets Thursday amid broader market moves (247wallst.com). (247wallst.com)
- Aftermath, big gain (+3.1% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.3%): After its 45 big gains in the past 5 years, NFLX was higher a week later 29 times out of 45; half the outcomes fell between -2.2% and +4.7%. History, not a forecast.
- 14 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 79% positive over the week · today's pace is 1.5× its recent daily average.
- 4 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 3 negative); latest: Keybanc maintained Overweight, lowered target $92.00 → $85.00.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: options price a ±9.1% move through the report.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices NFLX only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
71.88 +1.9% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
73.53 +4.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 72.72 · prior close 70.57 | |
| Bargain buy side |
69.28 -1.8% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
67.73 -4.0% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 68.87 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 72.31 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 69.28 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 71.88 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 69.67 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 71.48 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 66.83 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 74.52 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 67.73 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 73.53 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 68.58 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 72.62 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From NFLX's daily swings (about 1.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among NFLX's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 135.00 +85.6% |
| All-time closing high Jun 30, 2025 |
133.91 +84.1% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 21, 2025 |
124.14 +70.7% |
| Mean analyst target | 92.06 +26.6% |
| 200-day average | 83.00 +14.1% |
| 50-day average | 75.16 +3.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 73.53 +1.1% |
| Now | 72.72 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
70.57 -3.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 67.73 -6.9% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 2, 2026 |
67.06 -7.8% |
| Lowest analyst target | 57.00 -21.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 24 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.