NVR
Moving with its group (ITB +4.2%)
- NVR +4.39% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +4.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Oct 22 before the open: EPS $102.77 expected (7 analysts); it moved ±2.3% on average after its last 8 reports.
- The homebuilders ETF (ITB) +4.2% (+4.0 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (+4.4% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.1%): After its 63 big gains in the past 5 years, NVR was higher a day later 23 times out of 63; half the outcomes fell between -1.6% and +0.8%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices NVR only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
5,814.31 +1.4% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
5,916.25 +3.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 5,984.94 · prior close 5,733.12 | |
| Bargain buy side |
5,653.07 -1.4% reached 3 in 10 days |
5,555.66 -3.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 5,627.31 | 2 in 10 days | 5,840.92 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 5,653.07 | 3 in 10 days | 5,814.31 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 5,677.19 | 4 in 10 days | 5,789.60 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 5,499.21 | 2 in 10 weeks | 5,976.97 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 5,555.66 | 3 in 10 weeks | 5,916.25 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 5,608.80 | 4 in 10 weeks | 5,860.19 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From NVR's daily swings (about 1.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among NVR's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Oct 18, 2024 |
9,924.40 +65.8% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 11, 2026 |
8,097.25 +35.3% |
| Highest analyst target | 7,400.00 +23.6% |
| 200-day average | 6,621.63 +10.6% |
| Mean analyst target | 6,395.33 +6.9% |
| 50-day average | 6,209.11 +3.7% |
| Now | 5,984.94 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 5,916.25 -1.1% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
5,733.12 -4.2% |
| 52-week closing low May 15, 2026 |
5,563.62 -7.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 5,555.66 -7.2% |
| Lowest analyst target | 5,058.00 -15.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 41 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.