ORCL
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- ORCL +3.06% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +2.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (Sep 29): After its 76 big gains in the past 5 years, ORCL typically gained 0.7% over the next day (median) and was higher 64% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -1.0% and +2.4%. An ordinary day: +0.1%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big gains, that ranks #4 of 500.
- 1 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 77% positive over the week.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 0 negative); latest: Citizens reiterated Market Outperform, target $285.
- 4 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days, including 1 insider sale not under a 10b5-1 plan and 1 insider open-market buy.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.1%#269 H | +0.2%#309 H | +0.7%#266 H | +2.0%#248 M |
| Big drop (-3.9% or worse) | 74 | +0.6%#41 H | +0.3%#275 H | +1.6%#220 H | +3.1%#260 M |
| Big gain Sep 29 (+3.5% or better) | 76 | +0.7%#4 H | +1.1%#75 H | +1.2%#241 H | +8.5%#139 M |
| Earnings beat | 14 | +0.4%#203 M | +0.9%#201 M | +2.0%#193 M | +5.4%#180 M |
| Earnings miss | 6 | -0.7%#174 L | -1.4%#172 L | -6.3%#231 L | -3.0%#166 L |
| 52-week high | 12 | +0.3%#144 M | +1.5%#83 M | +3.3%#98 M | +16.6%#43 M |
| 52-week low | 1 | -2.7%– | -7.7%– | +10.6%– | — |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 7 | +0.8%#112 L | -1.2%#373 L | +10.6%#139 L | +10.7%#188 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 7 | +0.8%#148 L | -0.8%#390 L | +6.2%#206 L | +13.8%#163 L |
| RSI oversold | 11 | -0.5%#403 M | 0.0%#315 M | +2.9%#226 M | -7.6%#366 L |
| RSI overbought | 25 | +0.2%#153 H | 0.0%#291 H | +1.3%#176 H | +9.2%#90 M |
| Mention spike (Trendy) | 31 | -0.6%#87 H | +0.1%#61 H | -1.4%#72 H | -8.2%#74 M |
| Analyst upgrade | 5 | -3.3%#18 L | -2.3%#18 L | -4.7%#18 L | +16.1%– |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy latest session | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | 9 | -0.7%#30 L | -0.9%#23 L | -11.1%#24 L | -34.9%#27 L |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is ORCL's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Crossed above 200-day avg
The close moves above its 200-day moving average.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 7 | +0.85% (+0.4 to +1.5) | Low | #112 of 497 | 86% | +0.78% |
0%
+10%
|
|
| 1 week | 7 | -1.21% (-1.9 to +0.6) | Low | #373 of 497 | 43% | -0.78% |
-7%
+6%
|
|
| 1 month | 7 | +10.56% (-9.6 to +12.0) | Low | #139 of 497 | 71% | +4.18% |
-35%
+23%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 7 ≈6 indep. | +10.70% (-29.1 to +19.4) | Low | #188 of 494 | 71% | +1.90% |
-33%
+51%
|
Range of outcomes: all of ORCL's crosses above the 200-day average in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Crossed above 200-day avg by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 4 | +0.6%L vs +0.1% | -0.4%L vs +0.3% | +12.8%L vs +0.5% | +16.0%L vs +5.3% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 3 | +0.9%L vs 0.0% | -1.9%L vs 0.0% | +2.4%L vs +1.7% | +7.1%L vs +1.4% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 4 | +0.7%L vs +0.1% | -0.4%L vs +0.4% | +6.5%L vs +1.6% | +13.2%L vs +4.6% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 3 | +0.8%L vs -0.1% | -1.9%L vs -0.3% | +12.0%L vs -0.1% | +10.7%L vs -0.2% |
The same event split by where ORCL stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest crosses above the 200-day average
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 29, 2026 | May 29 @ $225.00 | +10.8% on the day | +9.9% | -5.4% | -35.1% | -33.0% |
| Dec 4, 2025 | Dec 4 @ $212.28 | +3.2% on the day | +1.5% | -7.2% | -9.6% | -29.1% |
| May 13, 2025 | May 13 @ $160.10 | +3.2% on the day | +0.4% | -1.2% | +23.2% | +50.8% |
| Feb 22, 2024 | Feb 22 @ $107.97 | +2.6% on the day | +0.8% | +0.6% | +15.1% | +12.6% |
| Jan 18, 2024 | Jan 18 @ $105.72 | +2.1% on the day | +0.9% | +5.8% | +2.4% | +7.1% |
| Oct 23, 2023 | Oct 23 @ $100.43 | +1.8% on the day | -0.4% | -1.9% | +12.0% | +10.7% |
| Oct 26, 2022 | Oct 26 @ $71.40 | +2.3% on the day | +0.4% | +0.4% | +10.6% | +19.4% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.