ORCL
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- ORCL +3.06% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +2.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (Sep 29): After its 76 big gains in the past 5 years, ORCL typically gained 0.7% over the next day (median) and was higher 64% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -1.0% and +2.4%. An ordinary day: +0.1%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big gains, that ranks #4 of 500.
- 1 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 77% positive over the week.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 0 negative); latest: Citizens reiterated Market Outperform, target $285.
- 4 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days, including 1 insider sale not under a 10b5-1 plan and 1 insider open-market buy.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.1%#269 H | +0.2%#309 H | +0.7%#266 H | +2.0%#248 M |
| Big drop (-3.9% or worse) | 74 | +0.6%#41 H | +0.3%#275 H | +1.6%#220 H | +3.1%#260 M |
| Big gain Sep 29 (+3.5% or better) | 76 | +0.7%#4 H | +1.1%#75 H | +1.2%#241 H | +8.5%#139 M |
| Earnings beat | 14 | +0.4%#203 M | +0.9%#201 M | +2.0%#193 M | +5.4%#180 M |
| Earnings miss | 6 | -0.7%#174 L | -1.4%#172 L | -6.3%#231 L | -3.0%#166 L |
| 52-week high | 12 | +0.3%#144 M | +1.5%#83 M | +3.3%#98 M | +16.6%#43 M |
| 52-week low | 1 | -2.7%– | -7.7%– | +10.6%– | — |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 7 | +0.8%#112 L | -1.2%#373 L | +10.6%#139 L | +10.7%#188 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 7 | +0.8%#148 L | -0.8%#390 L | +6.2%#206 L | +13.8%#163 L |
| RSI oversold | 11 | -0.5%#403 M | 0.0%#315 M | +2.9%#226 M | -7.6%#366 L |
| RSI overbought | 25 | +0.2%#153 H | 0.0%#291 H | +1.3%#176 H | +9.2%#90 M |
| Mention spike (Trendy) | 31 | -0.6%#87 H | +0.1%#61 H | -1.4%#72 H | -8.2%#74 M |
| Analyst upgrade | 5 | -3.3%#18 L | -2.3%#18 L | -4.7%#18 L | +16.1%– |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy latest session | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | 9 | -0.7%#30 L | -0.9%#23 L | -11.1%#24 L | -34.9%#27 L |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is ORCL's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Mention spike (Trendy)
Daily mentions at least 3x the prior week's average (20 or more); entry the next session.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 31 | -0.57% (-1.4 to +0.2) | High | #87 of 92 | 42% | -0.61% |
-6%
+10%
|
|
| 1 week | 31 | +0.10% (-1.0 to +1.3) | High | #61 of 92 | 52% | -1.48% |
-13%
+29%
|
|
| 1 month | 29 ≈21 indep. | -1.39% (-8.9 to +0.4) | High | #72 of 91 | 41% | -3.61% |
-35%
+42%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 27 ≈13 indep. | -8.16% (-21.9 to +4.8) | Medium | #74 of 87 | 37% | -9.49% |
-37%
+47%
|
Range of outcomes: all of ORCL's mention spikes in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Mention spike (Trendy) by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 13 | +0.8%M vs +0.2% | +1.3%M vs +0.3% | -3.1%M vs +1.5% | -15.8%M vs +6.4% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 18 | -1.5%M vs 0.0% | -0.6%M vs +0.4% | -0.9%M vs +2.2% | -4.4%L vs +12.2% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 16 | +0.2%M vs +0.1% | +0.7%M vs +0.3% | -0.6%M vs +0.5% | -24.2%M vs +5.3% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 15 | -1.0%M vs 0.0% | -0.2%M vs 0.0% | -2.3%M vs +1.7% | +0.8%L vs +1.4% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 14 | +0.2%M vs +0.1% | +0.7%M vs +0.4% | +2.2%M vs +1.6% | -23.0%M vs +4.6% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 17 | -1.0%M vs -0.1% | -0.6%M vs -0.3% | -7.3%M vs -0.1% | -0.7%L vs -0.2% |
The same event split by where ORCL stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest mention spikes
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Sep 25 @ $137.10 | 49 mentions vs 4.0/day the week before | -3.3% | +3.8% | … | … |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 11 @ $150.28 | 223 mentions vs 4.0/day the week before | -3.7% | -1.8% | … | … |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Aug 4 @ $145.74 | 23 mentions vs 6.0/day the week before | -0.9% | -0.2% | 0.0% | … |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Jul 21 @ $127.05 | 63 mentions vs 13.0/day the week before | -1.0% | -5.6% | +13.2% | … |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Jun 25 @ $151.93 | 39 mentions vs 4.0/day the week before | -2.6% | -8.0% | -21.1% | -8.2% |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Jun 11 @ $183.46 | 265 mentions vs 12.1/day the week before | 0.0% | +0.1% | -30.3% | -18.1% |
| May 28, 2026 | May 29 @ $225.00 | 41 mentions vs 1.7/day the week before | +9.9% | -5.4% | -35.1% | -33.0% |
| May 6, 2026 | May 7 @ $193.92 | 20 mentions vs 6.3/day the week before | +0.7% | +0.5% | +8.9% | -24.2% |
| Apr 28, 2026 | Apr 29 @ $163.26 | 29 mentions vs 4.1/day the week before | -1.5% | +18.4% | +37.8% | -21.9% |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Apr 17 @ $174.45 | 31 mentions vs 7.6/day the week before | +1.4% | -1.0% | +6.6% | -30.4% |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Apr 9 @ $137.38 | 37 mentions vs 1.6/day the week before | +0.2% | +29.4% | +42.1% | +2.4% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | Mar 9 @ $150.51 | 22 mentions vs 4.9/day the week before | -1.4% | +2.9% | -5.2% | +40.2% |
| Feb 9, 2026 | Feb 10 @ $158.78 | 26 mentions vs 7.3/day the week before | -1.7% | -2.3% | -0.5% | +17.3% |
| Jan 29, 2026 | Jan 30 @ $163.44 | 33 mentions vs 3.6/day the week before | -2.7% | -13.2% | -9.5% | +4.8% |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Jan 22 @ $176.94 | 21 mentions vs 1.1/day the week before | -0.6% | -5.1% | -20.7% | -0.7% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.