ORCL
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- ORCL +3.06% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +2.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (Sep 29): After its 76 big gains in the past 5 years, ORCL typically gained 0.7% over the next day (median) and was higher 64% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -1.0% and +2.4%. An ordinary day: +0.1%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big gains, that ranks #4 of 500.
- 1 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 77% positive over the week.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 0 negative); latest: Citizens reiterated Market Outperform, target $285.
- 4 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days, including 1 insider sale not under a 10b5-1 plan and 1 insider open-market buy.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.1%#269 H | +0.2%#309 H | +0.7%#266 H | +2.0%#248 M |
| Big drop (-3.9% or worse) | 74 | +0.6%#41 H | +0.3%#275 H | +1.6%#220 H | +3.1%#260 M |
| Big gain Sep 29 (+3.5% or better) | 76 | +0.7%#4 H | +1.1%#75 H | +1.2%#241 H | +8.5%#139 M |
| Earnings beat | 14 | +0.4%#203 M | +0.9%#201 M | +2.0%#193 M | +5.4%#180 M |
| Earnings miss | 6 | -0.7%#174 L | -1.4%#172 L | -6.3%#231 L | -3.0%#166 L |
| 52-week high | 12 | +0.3%#144 M | +1.5%#83 M | +3.3%#98 M | +16.6%#43 M |
| 52-week low | 1 | -2.7%– | -7.7%– | +10.6%– | — |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 7 | +0.8%#112 L | -1.2%#373 L | +10.6%#139 L | +10.7%#188 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 7 | +0.8%#148 L | -0.8%#390 L | +6.2%#206 L | +13.8%#163 L |
| RSI oversold | 11 | -0.5%#403 M | 0.0%#315 M | +2.9%#226 M | -7.6%#366 L |
| RSI overbought | 25 | +0.2%#153 H | 0.0%#291 H | +1.3%#176 H | +9.2%#90 M |
| Reddit spike | 31 | -0.6%#87 H | +0.1%#61 H | -1.4%#72 H | -8.2%#74 M |
| Analyst upgrade | 5 | -3.3%#18 L | -2.3%#18 L | -4.7%#18 L | +16.1%– |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy latest session | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | 9 | -0.7%#30 L | -0.9%#23 L | -11.1%#24 L | -34.9%#27 L |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is ORCL's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
RSI overbought
The 14-day RSI rises above 70.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 25 | +0.15% (-0.4 to +0.6) | High | #153 of 501 | 60% | -0.20% |
-13%
+10%
|
|
| 1 week | 25 | -0.02% (-1.2 to +0.9) | High | #291 of 501 | 48% | -0.03% |
-11%
+14%
|
|
| 1 month | 25 ≈22 indep. | +1.34% (-2.1 to +4.5) | High | #176 of 501 | 60% | +0.67% |
-35%
+40%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 25 ≈14 indep. | +9.19% (-2.6 to +15.3) | Medium | #90 of 501 | 60% | +4.43% |
-33%
+51%
|
Range of outcomes: all of ORCL's overbought readings in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
RSI overbought by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 22 | +0.4%H vs +0.2% | +0.4%H vs +0.3% | +1.8%M vs +1.5% | +12.9%M vs +6.4% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 2 | -1.2%– vs 0.0% | -0.9%– vs +0.4% | +1.8%– vs +2.2% | -15.9%– vs +12.2% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 24 | +0.2%H vs +0.1% | +0.2%H vs +0.3% | +1.8%H vs +0.5% | +10.2%M vs +5.3% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | — | — | — | — | — |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 25 | +0.2%H vs +0.1% | 0.0%H vs +0.4% | +1.3%H vs +1.6% | +9.2%M vs +4.6% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | — | — | — | — | — |
The same event split by where ORCL stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest overbought readings
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 29, 2026 | May 29 @ $225.00 | RSI 75.1, +10.8% on the day | +9.9% | -5.4% | -35.1% | -33.0% |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Apr 16 @ $177.72 | RSI 70.9, +5.0% on the day | -1.8% | -1.2% | +8.2% | -28.9% |
| Sep 10, 2025 | Sep 10 @ $324.63 | RSI 83.1, +36.0% on the day | -6.2% | -8.2% | -9.4% | -32.4% |
| Jul 28, 2025 | Jul 28 @ $244.92 | RSI 70.2, +1.1% on the day | +0.9% | +1.9% | -5.5% | +14.6% |
| Jun 30, 2025 | Jun 30 @ $215.71 | RSI 73.4, +4.0% on the day | +0.2% | +7.3% | +14.9% | +29.6% |
| Jun 3, 2025 | Jun 3 @ $166.88 | RSI 70.5, +1.5% on the day | -0.6% | +4.9% | +40.3% | +32.4% |
| May 13, 2025 | May 13 @ $160.10 | RSI 70.5, +3.2% on the day | +0.4% | -1.2% | +23.2% | +50.8% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | Nov 7 @ $182.77 | RSI 71.0, +2.8% on the day | +1.5% | +0.4% | +2.2% | -4.7% |
| Oct 14, 2024 | Oct 14 @ $172.72 | RSI 70.3, +0.2% on the day | -1.2% | -1.3% | +7.6% | -9.9% |
| Sep 25, 2024 | Sep 25 @ $162.70 | RSI 70.1, +0.3% on the day | +1.1% | +0.9% | +5.1% | +3.3% |
| Sep 10, 2024 | Sep 10 @ $152.54 | RSI 74.5, +11.4% on the day | +0.8% | +7.4% | +14.4% | +22.4% |
| Jul 3, 2024 | Jul 3 @ $140.88 | RSI 70.3, +0.8% on the day | +0.3% | -0.8% | -7.4% | +16.5% |
| Jun 12, 2024 | Jun 12 @ $136.97 | RSI 77.2, +13.3% on the day | -0.4% | +1.8% | +2.2% | +15.3% |
| Mar 12, 2024 | Mar 12 @ $124.05 | RSI 74.0, +11.8% on the day | -1.6% | +1.3% | -3.1% | -2.6% |
| Jan 24, 2024 | Jan 24 @ $111.18 | RSI 70.4, +2.2% on the day | +0.6% | -2.3% | -2.1% | +1.2% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.