ORCL
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- ORCL +3.06% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +2.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (Sep 29): After its 76 big gains in the past 5 years, ORCL typically gained 0.7% over the next day (median) and was higher 64% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -1.0% and +2.4%. An ordinary day: +0.1%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big gains, that ranks #4 of 500.
- 1 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 77% positive over the week.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 0 negative); latest: Citizens reiterated Market Outperform, target $285.
- 4 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days, including 1 insider sale not under a 10b5-1 plan and 1 insider open-market buy.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.1%#269 H | +0.2%#309 H | +0.7%#266 H | +2.0%#248 M |
| Big drop (-3.9% or worse) | 74 | +0.6%#41 H | +0.3%#275 H | +1.6%#220 H | +3.1%#260 M |
| Big gain Sep 29 (+3.5% or better) | 76 | +0.7%#4 H | +1.1%#75 H | +1.2%#241 H | +8.5%#139 M |
| Earnings beat | 14 | +0.4%#203 M | +0.9%#201 M | +2.0%#193 M | +5.4%#180 M |
| Earnings miss | 6 | -0.7%#174 L | -1.4%#172 L | -6.3%#231 L | -3.0%#166 L |
| 52-week high | 12 | +0.3%#144 M | +1.5%#83 M | +3.3%#98 M | +16.6%#43 M |
| 52-week low | 1 | -2.7%– | -7.7%– | +10.6%– | — |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 7 | +0.8%#112 L | -1.2%#373 L | +10.6%#139 L | +10.7%#188 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 7 | +0.8%#148 L | -0.8%#390 L | +6.2%#206 L | +13.8%#163 L |
| RSI oversold | 11 | -0.5%#403 M | 0.0%#315 M | +2.9%#226 M | -7.6%#366 L |
| RSI overbought | 25 | +0.2%#153 H | 0.0%#291 H | +1.3%#176 H | +9.2%#90 M |
| Mention spike (Trendy) | 31 | -0.6%#87 H | +0.1%#61 H | -1.4%#72 H | -8.2%#74 M |
| Analyst upgrade | 5 | -3.3%#18 L | -2.3%#18 L | -4.7%#18 L | +16.1%– |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy latest session | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | 9 | -0.7%#30 L | -0.9%#23 L | -11.1%#24 L | -34.9%#27 L |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is ORCL's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Big drop (-3.9% or worse)
A daily fall among the stock's own worst 10% of the prior 2 years.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 74 | +0.60% (+0.1 to +0.9) | High | #41 of 500 | 61% | +0.30% |
-7%
+5%
|
|
| 1 week | 74 | +0.28% (-1.0 to +1.4) | High | #275 of 500 | 51% | -0.05% |
-16%
+29%
|
|
| 1 month | 73 ≈42 indep. | +1.63% (-1.5 to +4.8) | High | #220 of 500 | 56% | +1.29% |
-38%
+42%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 70 ≈15 indep. | +3.07% (-4.5 to +10.2) | Medium | #260 of 499 | 56% | -3.02% |
-38%
+90%
|
Range of outcomes: all of ORCL's big drops in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Big drop by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 49 | +0.8%H vs +0.2% | +0.7%H vs +0.3% | +1.2%H vs +1.5% | +0.3%M vs +6.4% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 25 | -0.9%H vs 0.0% | -1.3%H vs +0.4% | +5.4%M vs +2.2% | +17.4%M vs +12.2% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 36 | +0.8%H vs +0.1% | +0.5%H vs +0.3% | +1.2%H vs +0.5% | +1.8%M vs +5.3% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 38 | +0.1%H vs 0.0% | -0.3%H vs 0.0% | +2.5%H vs +1.7% | +3.3%M vs +1.4% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 24 | +0.8%H vs +0.1% | -0.2%H vs +0.4% | -1.3%M vs +1.6% | +3.0%M vs +4.6% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 50 | +0.4%H vs -0.1% | +0.3%H vs -0.3% | +2.5%H vs -0.1% | +3.2%M vs -0.2% |
The same event split by where ORCL stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest big drops
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 10 @ $152.94 | -5.4% on the day (line -3.9%) | -1.7% | -1.5% | … | … |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Sep 1 @ $141.32 | -5.2% on the day (line -3.9%) | +3.1% | +14.4% | -2.3% | … |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Jul 23 @ $120.04 | -4.6% on the day (line -3.8%) | -4.2% | +6.3% | +22.0% | … |
| Jul 13, 2026 | Jul 13 @ $131.54 | -6.5% on the day (line -3.7%) | -2.7% | -7.7% | +10.6% | … |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Jun 22 @ $174.46 | -5.0% on the day (line -3.5%) | -5.7% | -15.6% | -27.9% | -14.8% |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Jun 11 @ $183.46 | -8.5% on the day (line -3.4%) | 0.0% | +0.1% | -30.3% | -18.1% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Jun 3 @ $229.53 | -5.8% on the day (line -3.4%) | +2.6% | -12.6% | -37.6% | -36.5% |
| May 12, 2026 | May 12 @ $186.18 | -3.6% on the day (line -3.3%) | +1.6% | -2.9% | -1.5% | -17.7% |
| Apr 23, 2026 | Apr 23 @ $175.67 | -6.0% on the day (line -3.1%) | -1.7% | -8.4% | +9.0% | -34.5% |
| Apr 9, 2026 | Apr 9 @ $137.38 | -3.7% on the day (line -3.1%) | +0.2% | +29.4% | +42.1% | +2.4% |
| Mar 20, 2026 | Mar 20 @ $148.64 | -3.8% on the day (line -3.0%) | +3.1% | -6.7% | +21.5% | +17.4% |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Feb 27 @ $144.39 | -3.3% on the day (line -3.0%) | +2.6% | +5.2% | -4.5% | +55.8% |
| Feb 17, 2026 | Feb 17 @ $152.90 | -3.9% on the day (line -2.9%) | +1.4% | -5.1% | -0.7% | +21.6% |
| Feb 4, 2026 | Feb 4 @ $145.65 | -5.2% on the day (line -2.8%) | -6.9% | +7.2% | +4.3% | +32.8% |
| Jan 27, 2026 | Jan 27 @ $173.69 | -4.1% on the day (line -2.7%) | -1.2% | -11.6% | -14.1% | -4.8% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.