TLT
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- TLT −0.30% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −1.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, rsi oversold (Sep 28): After its 12 oversold readings in the past 5 years, TLT typically gained 0.4% over the next day (median) and was higher 58% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -0.2% and +1.2%. An ordinary day: -0.0%. Among S&P 500 stocks after oversold readings, that ranks #66 of 496.
- 9 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 69% positive over the week.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | 0.0%#484 H | -0.2%#500 H | -0.7%#496 H | -1.6%#474 M |
| Big drop (-0.9% or worse) | 49 | +0.1%#331 H | -0.2%#479 H | +0.8%#475 H | -0.4%#491 M |
| Big gain (+0.9% or better) | 42 | -0.1%#441 H | +0.3%#294 H | +0.1%#494 H | -0.9%#496 M |
| Earnings beat | — | — | — | — | — |
| Earnings miss | — | — | — | — | — |
| 52-week high | 4 | +0.2%#169 L | -1.0%#399 L | -2.2%#478 L | -4.8%#455 L |
| 52-week low | 5 | +0.3%#10 L | +1.0%#81 L | -1.6%#243 L | +5.4%#146 L |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 19 | -0.1%#439 M | -0.2%#490 M | -2.1%#498 M | -2.6%#494 M |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 17 | 0.0%#291 M | -0.1%#457 M | -1.3%#487 M | -1.2%#487 M |
| RSI oversold Sep 28 | 12 | +0.4%#66 M | +0.8%#223 M | +0.3%#445 M | +0.2%#492 L |
| RSI overbought | 6 | -0.7%#491 L | -1.4%#466 L | -3.4%#500 L | -4.4%#502 L |
| Reddit spike | 21 | 0.0%#83 H | +0.2%#62 H | +0.5%#77 M | +1.6%#72 M |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is TLT's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Reddit spike
Daily Reddit mentions at least 3x the prior week's average (20 or more); entry the next session.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 21 | -0.04% (-0.4 to +0.2) | High | #83 of 92 | 43% | -0.76% |
-2%
+2%
|
|
| 1 week | 21 | +0.21% (-1.1 to +1.0) | High | #62 of 92 | 57% | -0.25% |
-5%
+4%
|
|
| 1 month | 20 ≈19 indep. | +0.46% (-0.3 to +2.6) | Medium | #77 of 91 | 55% | -1.62% |
-6%
+11%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 19 ≈11 indep. | +1.60% (+0.8 to +3.2) | Medium | #72 of 87 | 68% | -6.62% |
-13%
+15%
|
Range of outcomes: all of TLT's Reddit spikes in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Reddit spike by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 5 | -0.1%L vs -0.1% | -0.1%L vs -0.4% | -2.7%L vs -1.1% | -3.2%L vs -2.2% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 16 | 0.0%M vs +0.1% | +0.6%M vs +0.1% | +1.6%M vs 0.0% | +3.8%M vs +0.2% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 6 | -0.1%L vs -0.1% | +1.1%L vs -0.4% | +1.0%L vs -1.3% | +0.2%L vs -2.3% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 15 | 0.0%M vs +0.1% | +0.1%M vs -0.2% | +0.1%M vs -0.7% | +4.3%M vs -0.7% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 6 | -0.2%L vs -0.1% | -0.1%L vs -0.1% | -1.1%L vs -0.7% | +0.2%L vs -2.2% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 15 | +0.2%M vs 0.0% | +0.2%M vs -0.2% | +1.1%M vs -0.8% | +4.3%M vs -0.9% |
The same event split by where TLT stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest Reddit spikes
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 18 @ $80.92 | 22 mentions vs 7.1/day the week before | +0.7% | -2.4% | … | … |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Aug 20 @ $81.70 | 29 mentions vs 0.0/day the week before | -0.4% | +1.0% | -0.3% | … |
| Sep 8, 2025 | Sep 9 @ $84.98 | 23 mentions vs 5.0/day the week before | +0.6% | +1.3% | +0.4% | -0.5% |
| Jul 15, 2025 | Jul 16 @ $80.46 | 32 mentions vs 5.1/day the week before | 0.0% | +1.1% | +2.6% | +7.9% |
| May 21, 2025 | May 22 @ $79.19 | 104 mentions vs 9.3/day the week before | +0.2% | +2.2% | +3.9% | +4.3% |
| May 6, 2025 | May 7 @ $82.46 | 20 mentions vs 4.3/day the week before | -1.1% | -2.9% | -2.5% | +0.9% |
| Apr 17, 2025 | Apr 21 @ $80.38 | 30 mentions vs 8.3/day the week before | +0.6% | +4.0% | -0.3% | +1.7% |
| Mar 31, 2025 | Apr 1 @ $85.51 | 30 mentions vs 4.1/day the week before | -0.1% | -3.4% | -2.7% | -3.2% |
| Jan 15, 2025 | Jan 16 @ $80.52 | 31 mentions vs 3.3/day the week before | +0.2% | +0.2% | +1.6% | +1.6% |
| Oct 7, 2024 | Oct 8 @ $86.94 | 27 mentions vs 6.0/day the week before | -0.6% | -0.1% | -4.7% | -8.5% |
| Sep 18, 2024 | Sep 19 @ $90.56 | 40 mentions vs 7.3/day the week before | -0.4% | -1.2% | -5.1% | -8.9% |
| Jul 24, 2024 | Jul 25 @ $83.63 | 24 mentions vs 1.9/day the week before | +0.8% | +3.6% | +7.0% | +0.8% |
| Jun 28, 2024 | Jul 1 @ $81.49 | 26 mentions vs 6.4/day the week before | +0.8% | +2.7% | +5.5% | +9.8% |
| Dec 6, 2023 | Dec 7 @ $84.43 | 32 mentions vs 10.3/day the week before | -0.8% | +4.2% | +1.7% | +1.3% |
| Nov 17, 2023 | Nov 20 @ $79.99 | 22 mentions vs 4.3/day the week before | 0.0% | +1.0% | +10.6% | +3.2% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.