TSLA
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- TSLA −1.99% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: −2.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Wed after the close: EPS $0.45 expected (24 analysts); it moved ±7.8% on average after its last 8 reports.
- Against the group: its evs & autos peers +1.6% (+1.6 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, mention spike (trendy) (Oct 12): After its 109 mention spikes in the past 5 years, TSLA was higher a week later 47 times out of 109; half the outcomes fell between -5.6% and +3.9%. History, not a forecast.
- 26 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 75% positive over the week.
- 3 analyst actions in the past 10 days (2 positive, 0 negative); latest: Jefferies maintained Hold, raised target $350 → $400.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: options price a ±7.6% move through the report.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices TSLA only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
375.33 +2.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
385.67 +5.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 359.84 · prior close 367.16 | |
| Bargain buy side |
359.17 -2.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
349.54 -4.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 356.61 | 2 in 10 days | 378.02 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 359.17 | 3 in 10 days | 375.33 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 361.57 | 4 in 10 days | 372.84 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 343.99 | 2 in 10 weeks | 391.89 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 349.54 | 3 in 10 weeks | 385.67 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 354.78 | 4 in 10 weeks | 379.97 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From TSLA's daily swings (about 2.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among TSLA's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 600.00 +66.7% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Dec 16, 2025 |
489.88 +36.1% |
| Mean analyst target | 397.83 +10.6% |
| 200-day average | 388.48 +8.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 385.67 +7.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
367.16 +2.0% |
| Now | 359.84 |
| 50-day average | 358.71 -0.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 349.54 -2.9% |
| 52-week closing low Jul 29, 2026 |
298.32 -17.1% |
| Lowest analyst target | 128.11 -64.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 16 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.