TSM
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- TSM +2.96% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +2.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, rsi overbought (Oct 2): After its 24 overbought readings in the past 5 years, TSM typically gained 2.3% over the next month (median) and was higher 62% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -2.8% and +9.9%. An ordinary month: +2.6%. Among S&P 500 stocks after overbought readings, that ranks #120 of 501.
- 1 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 91% positive over the week.
- 30 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days, including 30 insider open-market buys.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | 0.0%#281 H | +0.6%#58 H | +2.6%#41 H | +10.1%#15 M |
| Big drop (-2.8% or worse) | 59 | -0.1%#368 H | +0.6%#221 H | +4.2%#53 H | +13.6%#23 M |
| Big gain (+3.3% or better) | 69 | 0.0%#363 H | +0.2%#290 H | +4.0%#41 H | +12.2%#56 M |
| Earnings beat | 20 | -1.6%#480 H | -0.1%#272 H | +4.7%#77 H | +9.5%#26 M |
| Earnings miss | — | — | — | — | — |
| 52-week high | 16 | +0.4%#99 M | +1.6%#91 M | +5.1%#14 M | +7.4%#11 M |
| 52-week low | 1 | -5.9%– | -3.8%– | -3.6%– | +21.2%– |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 5 | -0.2%#262 L | -3.8%#348 L | +7.2%#145 L | +12.0%#71 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 3 | -0.3%#404 L | +0.9%#178 L | -0.3%#280 L | +9.3%#6 L |
| RSI oversold | 9 | +0.3%#196 M | +1.2%#193 M | +3.7%#178 M | +13.1%#136 L |
| RSI overbought latest session | 25 | -0.2%#380 H | -0.4%#362 H | +2.3%#120 M | +9.6%#42 M |
| Reddit spike | 41 | -0.9%#93 H | +0.7%#24 H | +1.1%#50 H | +10.1%#4 M |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | 157 | +0.6%#5 M | -2.0%#4 M | +3.4%#2 L | +8.3%– |
| Insider unplanned sale | 2 | +1.2%– | +3.5%– | +12.5%– | +3.8%– |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is TSM's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Big drop (-2.8% or worse)
A daily fall among the stock's own worst 10% of the prior 2 years.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 59 | -0.14% (-0.3 to +0.4) | High | #368 of 500 | 49% | -0.23% |
-7%
+7%
|
|
| 1 week | 59 | +0.55% (0.0 to +1.6) | High | #221 of 500 | 59% | +1.17% |
-10%
+15%
|
|
| 1 month | 58 ≈38 indep. | +4.20% (+1.2 to +5.6) | High | #53 of 500 | 66% | +2.62% |
-16%
+35%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 56 ≈15 indep. | +13.62% (+7.3 to +18.8) | Medium | #23 of 499 | 79% | +8.51% |
-25%
+59%
|
Range of outcomes: all of TSM's big drops in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Big drop by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 52 | +0.2%H vs +0.2% | +1.1%H vs +0.9% | +4.0%H vs +4.3% | +12.8%M vs +12.1% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 7 | -0.2%L vs 0.0% | -1.8%L vs +0.1% | +11.6%L vs +2.2% | +34.4%L vs +17.8% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 31 | +0.2%H vs 0.0% | +1.8%H vs +0.7% | +2.8%H vs +3.5% | +8.7%M vs +11.1% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 28 | -0.2%H vs +0.1% | +0.2%H vs +0.4% | +5.4%H vs +1.6% | +22.9%M vs +8.9% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 28 | +0.2%H vs +0.1% | +1.7%H vs +0.8% | +5.3%H vs +3.1% | +8.7%M vs +9.8% |
| Below its 20-day avg | 31 | -0.2%H vs 0.0% | +0.2%H vs 0.0% | +2.2%H vs +1.9% | +22.9%M vs +10.2% |
The same event split by where TSM stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest big drops
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 14 @ $416.89 | -3.5% on the day (line -2.8%) | -1.0% | +6.8% | … | … |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Aug 18 @ $412.30 | -4.1% on the day (line -2.8%) | -0.3% | +1.0% | +4.4% | … |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Jul 24 @ $402.33 | -2.9% on the day (line -2.9%) | -1.1% | +0.2% | +1.7% | … |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Jul 1 @ $443.04 | -7.0% on the day (line -2.9%) | -2.3% | -1.6% | -9.0% | +3.0% |
| Jun 16, 2026 | Jun 16 @ $424.69 | -3.5% on the day (line -2.9%) | +1.5% | +3.5% | -6.4% | -1.6% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Jun 5 @ $413.09 | -6.7% on the day (line -2.8%) | +2.8% | +2.3% | +5.5% | +3.6% |
| May 15, 2026 | May 15 @ $402.33 | -3.2% on the day (line -2.8%) | -2.1% | 0.0% | +5.6% | +6.8% |
| Apr 28, 2026 | Apr 28 @ $390.38 | -3.1% on the day (line -2.8%) | +0.4% | +0.5% | +8.3% | -4.3% |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Apr 16 @ $361.53 | -3.1% on the day (line -2.8%) | +2.0% | +5.3% | +11.3% | +9.9% |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Mar 30 @ $314.92 | -3.1% on the day (line -2.8%) | +6.8% | +9.1% | +24.4% | +51.2% |
| Mar 20, 2026 | Mar 20 @ $327.59 | -2.8% on the day (line -2.7%) | +2.8% | -0.8% | +11.8% | +42.4% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | Mar 6 @ $336.25 | -4.2% on the day (line -2.7%) | +2.9% | -0.2% | +2.2% | +22.9% |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Feb 26 @ $373.87 | -2.8% on the day (line -2.6%) | -0.6% | -6.1% | -13.0% | +13.1% |
| Feb 4, 2026 | Feb 4 @ $323.20 | -3.0% on the day (line -2.6%) | +1.5% | +14.8% | +4.0% | +29.1% |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Jan 20 @ $324.61 | -4.5% on the day (line -2.6%) | -0.3% | +3.4% | +10.2% | +12.8% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.