UPST
Moving with its group (XLF +0.7%)
- UPST +1.50% on the last session vs SPY −0.09%: +1.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- The financials ETF (XLF) +0.7% (+0.8 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- 1 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 82% positive over the week · today's pace is 1.9× its recent daily average.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 2 negative); latest: Citizens maintained Market Underperform, lowered target $20.00 → $18.00.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices UPST only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
23.36 +2.7% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% |
24.16 +6.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 23.08 · prior close 22.74 | |
| Bargain buy side |
22.13 -2.7% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
21.40 -5.9% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 21.94 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 23.57 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 22.13 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 23.36 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 22.31 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 23.17 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 20.99 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 24.64 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 21.40 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 24.16 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 21.80 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 23.72 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From UPST's daily swings (about 2.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | -3.4% | -4.2% | — | — |
| Mar 12, 2026 | -6.2% | +3.9% | +8.9% | +23.4% |
| Feb 5, 2026 | -8.7% | -12.8% | -19.4% | -16.2% |
| May 2, 2023 | -6.8% | +16.4% | +145.9% | +461.9% |
| Dec 7, 2022 | -1.6% | -0.2% | -20.0% | -8.0% |
| Nov 2, 2022 | -7.8% | -16.5% | -8.6% | +8.2% |
| Sep 22, 2022 | -6.8% | -1.5% | +2.5% | -34.2% |
| Jul 8, 2022 | -19.7% | -5.0% | +19.1% | -16.6% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among UPST's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Oct 15, 2021 |
390.00 +1589.8% |
| Highest analyst target | 61.00 +164.3% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 27, 2025 |
52.74 +128.5% |
| Mean analyst target | 38.38 +66.3% |
| 200-day average | 31.19 +35.1% |
| 50-day average | 26.68 +15.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 24.16 +4.7% |
| Now | 23.08 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
22.74 -1.5% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
22.74 -1.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 21.40 -7.3% |
| Lowest analyst target | 18.00 -22.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 6 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.