USO
Reddit attention is surging
- USO +2.85% on the last session vs SPY +0.06%: +2.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, mention spike (trendy) (Oct 9): After its 12 mention spikes in the past 5 years, USO was higher a week later 4 times out of 12; half the outcomes fell between -8.6% and +4.4%. History, not a forecast.
- 10 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 72% positive over the week · today's pace is 1.6× its recent daily average.
- 2 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days, including 1 insider sale not under a 10b5-1 plan and 1 insider open-market buy.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,254 | — | +0.1%663/1253 up | +0.5%673/1249 up | +0.8%670/1233 up | +1.1%632/1191 up |
| Big drop (-2.7% or worse) | 64 | — | -0.3%25/64 up | +1.0%39/64 up | +1.3%35/62 up | +3.0%34/59 up |
| Big gain (+3.2% or better) | 62 | — | 0.0%30/62 up | +0.8%35/62 up | +1.2%34/61 up | +4.0%30/56 up |
| Earnings beat | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Earnings miss | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 52-week high | 6 | — | -0.5%3/6 up | -4.0%2/6 up | -1.3%3/6 up | -14.4%1/5 up |
| 52-week low | 2 | — | -2.0%1/2 up | +1.8%2/2 up | +8.2%1/2 up | +9.8%2/2 up |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 17 | — | +0.1%9/17 up | -0.9%5/17 up | -0.7%8/17 up | -4.4%6/17 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 16 | — | 0.0%8/16 up | +0.5%8/16 up | +0.7%10/16 up | -2.0%6/16 up |
| RSI oversold | 5 | — | +1.9%4/5 up | +1.0%3/5 up | +11.7%4/5 up | +16.6%5/5 up |
| RSI overbought | 16 | — | -0.3%7/16 up | +0.8%11/16 up | +0.4%10/16 up | -0.5%7/14 up |
| Volume spike | 10 | — | +0.3%6/10 up | +0.8%5/10 up | +5.7%6/10 up | +17.3%8/10 up |
| Theme selloff hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Theme rally hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mention spike (Trendy) Oct 9 | 13 | — | +0.7%8/13 up | -3.6%4/12 up | +3.0%7/12 up | -8.2%3/8 up |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | 1 | — | -1.0%0/1 up | -1.4%0/1 up | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | 1 | — | -1.0%0/1 up | -1.4%0/1 up | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is USO's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Crossed below 200-day avg
The close moves below its 200-day moving average.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 16 | +0.02% | 8 of 16 | -0.19% |
-4%
+4%
|
|
| 1 week | 16 | +0.50% | 8 of 16 | +1.34% |
-9%
+8%
|
|
| 1 month | 16 | +0.75% | 10 of 16 | -1.79% |
-12%
+13%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 16 ≈9 indep. | -2.01% | 6 of 16 | -7.09% |
-9%
+63%
|
Range of outcomes: all of USO's crosses below the 200-day average in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Crossed below 200-day avg by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 4 | -0.8%4 events vs +0.1% | +3.8%4 events vs +0.2% | +6.8%4 events vs +0.5% | +14.3%4 events vs -2.3% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 12 | 0.0%12 events vs +0.2% | -0.9%12 events vs +0.8% | +0.1%12 events vs +1.1% | -3.3%12 events vs +2.8% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 6 | -0.2%6 events vs +0.1% | -3.1%6 events vs -0.1% | +2.2%6 events vs +1.3% | +6.2%6 events vs -0.3% |
| Below its 20-day avg | 10 | 0.0%10 events vs +0.2% | +2.0%10 events vs +1.0% | +0.7%10 events vs +0.7% | -3.3%10 events vs +1.8% |
The same event split by where USO stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Latest crosses below the 200-day average
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2026 | Jan 15 @ $71.13 | -2.0% on the day | +0.7% | +4.0% | +6.5% | +63.1% |
| Sep 11, 2025 | Sep 11 @ $73.00 | -2.3% on the day | +0.4% | +2.3% | -4.9% | -3.4% |
| Aug 8, 2025 | Aug 8 @ $73.30 | -0.2% on the day | +0.7% | -0.7% | +0.1% | -3.3% |
| Mar 28, 2025 | Mar 28 @ $74.77 | -0.9% on the day | +3.4% | -9.2% | -11.9% | -2.2% |
| Feb 25, 2025 | Feb 25 @ $74.13 | -2.4% on the day | -0.4% | -1.1% | +1.7% | -9.2% |
| Oct 15, 2024 | Oct 15 @ $72.76 | -4.2% on the day | -0.5% | +1.7% | -2.8% | +14.0% |
| Aug 30, 2024 | Aug 30 @ $74.34 | -3.2% on the day | -4.4% | -6.8% | -3.0% | -3.7% |
| Jul 30, 2024 | Jul 30 @ $74.46 | -1.0% on the day | +4.4% | -2.7% | +1.4% | -5.4% |
| Jun 3, 2024 | Jun 3 @ $71.83 | -4.0% on the day | -1.0% | +5.1% | +13.1% | -1.0% |
| Feb 1, 2024 | Feb 1 @ $69.07 | -2.6% on the day | -2.3% | +3.5% | +7.2% | +9.9% |
| Dec 27, 2023 | Dec 27 @ $68.92 | -1.8% on the day | -2.5% | -2.0% | +4.5% | +14.2% |
| Nov 16, 2023 | Nov 16 @ $68.05 | -4.6% on the day | +4.0% | +4.1% | +0.1% | +6.4% |
| Jul 17, 2023 | Jul 17 @ $66.58 | -1.3% on the day | +2.1% | +6.2% | +9.1% | +18.6% |
| Apr 19, 2023 | Apr 19 @ $69.30 | -2.0% on the day | -2.5% | -5.7% | -7.6% | -1.8% |
| Oct 11, 2022 | Oct 11 @ $71.75 | -2.8% on the day | -1.1% | -4.3% | -0.1% | -5.2% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.