USO
Reddit attention is surging
- USO +2.78% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +2.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, mention spike (trendy) (Oct 9): After its 12 mention spikes in the past 5 years, USO was higher a week later 4 times out of 12; half the outcomes fell between -8.6% and +4.4%. History, not a forecast.
- 10 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 72% positive over the week · today's pace is 1.6× its recent daily average.
- 2 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days, including 1 insider sale not under a 10b5-1 plan and 1 insider open-market buy.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,254 | — | +0.1%663/1253 up | +0.5%673/1249 up | +0.8%670/1233 up | +1.1%632/1191 up |
| Big drop (-2.7% or worse) | 64 | — | -0.3%25/64 up | +1.0%39/64 up | +1.3%35/62 up | +3.0%34/59 up |
| Big gain (+3.2% or better) | 62 | — | 0.0%30/62 up | +0.8%35/62 up | +1.2%34/61 up | +4.0%30/56 up |
| Earnings beat | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Earnings miss | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 52-week high | 6 | — | -0.5%3/6 up | -4.0%2/6 up | -1.3%3/6 up | -14.4%1/5 up |
| 52-week low | 2 | — | -2.0%1/2 up | +1.8%2/2 up | +8.2%1/2 up | +9.8%2/2 up |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 17 | — | +0.1%9/17 up | -0.9%5/17 up | -0.7%8/17 up | -4.4%6/17 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 16 | — | 0.0%8/16 up | +0.5%8/16 up | +0.7%10/16 up | -2.0%6/16 up |
| RSI oversold | 5 | — | +1.9%4/5 up | +1.0%3/5 up | +11.7%4/5 up | +16.6%5/5 up |
| RSI overbought | 16 | — | -0.3%7/16 up | +0.8%11/16 up | +0.4%10/16 up | -0.5%7/14 up |
| Volume spike | 10 | — | +0.3%6/10 up | +0.8%5/10 up | +5.7%6/10 up | +17.3%8/10 up |
| Theme selloff hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Theme rally hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mention spike (Trendy) Oct 9 | 13 | — | +0.7%8/13 up | -3.6%4/12 up | +3.0%7/12 up | -8.2%3/8 up |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | 1 | — | -1.0%0/1 up | -1.4%0/1 up | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | 1 | — | -1.0%0/1 up | -1.4%0/1 up | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is USO's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Mention spike (Trendy)
Daily mentions at least 3x the prior week's average (20 or more); entry the next session.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 13 | +0.74% | 8 of 13 | +0.27% |
-3%
+2%
|
|
| 1 week | 12 | -3.59% | 4 of 12 | -3.05% |
-11%
+12%
|
|
| 1 month | 12 ≈9 indep. | +3.00% | 7 of 12 | -1.82% |
-23%
+24%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 8 ≈4 indep. | -8.21% | 3 of 8 | -16.52% |
-24%
+30%
|
Range of outcomes: all of USO's mention spikes in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Mention spike (Trendy) by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 12 | +0.9%12 events vs 0.0% | -6.5%11 events vs -0.3% | +1.6%11 events vs -1.5% | -9.2%7 events vs -3.3% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 1 | -1.3%1 events vs +0.2% | -0.4%1 events vs +1.2% | +6.4%1 events vs +1.5% | +21.2%1 events vs +5.0% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 11 | +1.0%11 events vs +0.1% | -3.6%10 events vs +0.2% | +3.0%10 events vs +0.5% | -10.7%6 events vs -2.3% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 2 | -2.0%2 events vs +0.2% | -5.6%2 events vs +0.8% | -0.2%2 events vs +1.1% | +20.7%2 events vs +2.8% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 10 | +0.9%10 events vs +0.1% | -3.6%10 events vs -0.1% | +3.0%10 events vs +1.3% | -10.7%6 events vs -0.3% |
| Below its 20-day avg | 3 | -1.3%3 events vs +0.2% | -5.6%2 events vs +1.0% | -0.2%2 events vs +0.7% | +20.7%2 events vs +1.8% |
The same event split by where USO stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Latest mention spikes
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | Oct 9 @ $148.20 | 23 mentions vs 0.7/day the week before | +1.9% | … | … | … |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 11 @ $154.90 | 46 mentions vs 7.6/day the week before | +1.1% | -0.7% | -2.5% | … |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Sep 2 @ $141.15 | 29 mentions vs 2.6/day the week before | +0.7% | +12.2% | +4.4% | … |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Aug 11 @ $127.61 | 30 mentions vs 1.3/day the week before | -0.2% | +2.4% | +24.1% | … |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Jul 21 @ $128.85 | 25 mentions vs 3.4/day the week before | +2.2% | -6.5% | +1.6% | … |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Jun 11 @ $128.83 | 28 mentions vs 3.3/day the week before | -2.6% | -10.8% | -6.7% | +20.2% |
| May 15, 2026 | May 18 @ $149.29 | 25 mentions vs 0.0/day the week before | +2.5% | -8.2% | -23.5% | -12.5% |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Apr 30 @ $147.09 | 99 mentions vs 9.0/day the week before | -2.9% | -8.2% | -7.9% | -12.2% |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Apr 2 @ $137.92 | 35 mentions vs 10.7/day the week before | +0.7% | -9.5% | +7.0% | -24.3% |
| Mar 23, 2026 | Mar 24 @ $114.54 | 128 mentions vs 22.1/day the week before | -1.0% | +11.1% | +17.6% | -7.2% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | Mar 9 @ $104.33 | 122 mentions vs 4.9/day the week before | +1.5% | +10.3% | +19.4% | +29.5% |
| Jun 17, 2025 | Jun 18 @ $82.27 | 29 mentions vs 2.9/day the week before | +1.0% | -10.6% | -8.1% | -9.2% |
| Dec 28, 2023 | Dec 29 @ $66.65 | 20 mentions vs 1.6/day the week before | -1.3% | -0.4% | +6.4% | +21.2% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.