SMCI
Up on raised Q1 revenue guidance
- SMCI +9.55% on the last session vs SPY +0.53%: +9.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Guidance: Raised Q1'27 revenue guidance to $18.5-19.5B versus prior $14.5-15.5B, well above consensus. (release)
- News: Super Micro raised Q1'27 revenue guidance to $18.5-19.5B, well above consensus (Motley Fool). (fool.com)
- More than its group: its ai servers & data centers peers +4.1% (+3.5 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, big gain (+9.6% on the day (line +7.5%)): After its 78 big gains in the past 5 years, SMCI was higher a week later 36 times out of 78; half the outcomes fell between -6.8% and +7.3%. History, not a forecast.
- 62 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 77% positive over the week · today's pace is 2.8× its recent daily average.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (1 positive, 0 negative); latest: Rosenblatt maintained Buy, raised target $51.00 → $57.00.
- 2 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days.
- Activity: volume 2.4× its 20-day average.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,254 | — | +0.1%631/1253 up | +0.6%670/1249 up | +3.0%683/1233 up | +9.0%740/1191 up |
| Big drop (-6.0% or worse) | 71 | — | +0.5%39/71 up | +0.6%37/71 up | +4.0%38/70 up | +10.4%47/68 up |
| Big gain latest session (+7.7% or better) | 79 | — | 0.0%38/78 up | -2.1%36/78 up | +3.2%43/78 up | +8.5%49/74 up |
| Earnings beat | 15 | +10.2%11/15 up | +0.8%8/15 up | -2.7%7/15 up | +6.3%11/15 up | +4.3%9/14 up |
| Earnings miss | 4 | -14.8%1/4 up | +0.8%2/4 up | -0.6%2/4 up | -15.5%1/4 up | -8.4%2/4 up |
| 52-week high | 8 | — | +2.0%6/8 up | +1.5%6/8 up | +5.0%5/8 up | +40.1%7/8 up |
| 52-week low | 2 | — | +8.7%2/2 up | -1.7%1/2 up | +66.0%2/2 up | +80.3%2/2 up |
| Crossed above 200-day avg latest session | 6 | — | +2.9%4/5 up | -2.7%2/5 up | -7.6%2/5 up | -8.3%2/4 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg Oct 16 | 6 | — | -0.5%3/6 up | -9.8%1/5 up | -17.5%1/5 up | -18.2%1/5 up |
| RSI oversold | 7 | — | -1.6%3/7 up | -4.3%2/7 up | -1.3%3/7 up | -19.4%2/7 up |
| RSI overbought | 16 | — | -1.6%5/16 up | -4.2%7/16 up | -0.4%7/16 up | +4.3%8/15 up |
| Volume spike | 26 | — | +0.7%15/26 up | -5.1%9/26 up | +6.0%15/26 up | +6.3%18/25 up |
| Theme selloff hindsight | 54 | — | -1.3%20/54 up | -0.9%26/54 up | +4.7%28/53 up | -4.9%23/49 up |
| Theme rally latest session hindsight | 72 | — | -0.6%32/71 up | -0.4%35/71 up | +6.1%38/71 up | -0.6%31/66 up |
| Mention spike (Trendy) latest session | 49 | — | -1.0%19/48 up | -3.5%18/48 up | 0.0%24/48 up | -4.4%21/47 up |
| Analyst upgrade | 1 | — | +5.2%1/1 up | -1.8%0/1 up | +30.8%1/1 up | -7.4%0/1 up |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | 1 | — | -1.3%0/1 up | +2.5%1/1 up | -12.4%0/1 up | -9.4%0/1 up |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is SMCI's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session or today, from the live quote.
Theme selloff
The stock's theme peers (equal weight, without the stock) fell behind the S&P 500 by one of their worst 10% gaps of the prior 2 years, and by at least 2 pts.
Hindsight: the history below is judged with today's theme lists, which were set on Oct 7, 2026 and hold the stocks that belong to each story now, including ones that didn't back then. So there is no S&P 500 comparison. The clean record starts on Oct 7, 2026: 1 theme selloff since then; its record shows once there are 3.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 54 | -1.33% | 20 of 54 | -1.07% |
-20%
+9%
|
— |
| 1 week | 54 | -0.91% | 26 of 54 | -1.06% |
-27%
+49%
|
— |
| 1 month | 53 ≈35 indep. | +4.70% | 28 of 53 | +2.27% |
-32%
+103%
|
— |
| 1 quarter | 49 ≈14 indep. | -4.92% | 23 of 49 | -5.98% |
-53%
+182%
|
— |
Range of outcomes: all of SMCI's theme selloffs in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Theme selloff by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 30 | -1.1%30 events vs +0.2% | -2.0%30 events vs +1.1% | +6.7%29 events vs +4.2% | -10.8%26 events vs +9.9% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 24 | -2.6%24 events vs -0.4% | +2.2%24 events vs -0.1% | +1.1%24 events vs -0.4% | +13.4%23 events vs +2.9% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 22 | -0.7%22 events vs 0.0% | -1.5%22 events vs +0.1% | +3.0%22 events vs -1.8% | +7.9%19 events vs +10.4% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 32 | -1.7%32 events vs +0.1% | +0.7%32 events vs +1.7% | +4.7%31 events vs +6.8% | -6.0%30 events vs +7.2% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 26 | -0.7%26 events vs 0.0% | -0.4%26 events vs +0.2% | +7.1%26 events vs +1.3% | -5.7%23 events vs +6.7% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 28 | -1.7%28 events vs +0.1% | -1.3%28 events vs +1.7% | +2.7%27 events vs +4.3% | +9.4%26 events vs +13.9% |
The same event split by where SMCI stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Latest theme selloffs
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 14 @ $35.78 | AI servers & data centers peers -6.2 pts vs SPY; the stock -8.4% | -1.9% | -0.6% | … | … |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 10 @ $37.38 | AI servers & data centers peers -3.7 pts vs SPY; the stock -4.0% | +7.3% | +7.9% | +12.0% | … |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Aug 28 @ $37.08 | AI servers & data centers peers -3.6 pts vs SPY; the stock -3.6% | +0.5% | +6.8% | +10.6% | … |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Aug 18 @ $37.41 | AI servers & data centers peers -4.2 pts vs SPY; the stock -2.3% | -2.2% | +2.8% | +7.9% | … |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Jul 28 @ $28.45 | AI servers & data centers peers -5.9 pts vs SPY; the stock -4.6% | -9.7% | +11.4% | +31.4% | … |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Jul 15 @ $26.89 | AI servers & data centers peers -3.5 pts vs SPY; the stock -2.8% | -8.2% | +13.6% | +45.6% | +45.3% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Jul 1 @ $27.65 | AI servers & data centers peers -3.4 pts vs SPY; the stock -5.7% | -1.6% | +2.1% | +2.7% | +48.5% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | Jun 23 @ $33.32 | AI servers & data centers peers -3.2 pts vs SPY; the stock -6.0% | -2.6% | -12.0% | -6.4% | +24.7% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Jun 5 @ $41.64 | AI servers & data centers peers -3.5 pts vs SPY; the stock -11.2% | +5.6% | -26.8% | -32.3% | -4.9% |
| May 18, 2026 | May 18 @ $30.85 | AI servers & data centers peers -3.6 pts vs SPY; the stock -0.6% | -0.9% | +20.3% | -10.0% | +21.3% |
| May 7, 2026 | May 7 @ $33.62 | AI servers & data centers peers -4.3 pts vs SPY; the stock -3.0% | +5.2% | -1.8% | +30.8% | -7.4% |
| Apr 28, 2026 | Apr 28 @ $27.25 | AI servers & data centers peers -2.7 pts vs SPY; the stock -2.1% | -3.4% | +2.1% | +51.6% | -5.7% |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Apr 15 @ $27.29 | AI servers & data centers peers -2.4 pts vs SPY; the stock +0.3% | +4.1% | +6.9% | +21.0% | -9.6% |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Mar 26 @ $22.21 | AI servers & data centers peers -3.4 pts vs SPY; the stock -7.7% | -1.1% | +4.5% | +25.4% | +37.9% |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Mar 3 @ $30.68 | AI servers & data centers peers -3.7 pts vs SPY; the stock -3.6% | +6.4% | +3.6% | -26.6% | +63.5% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.