SMCI
Up on Q1 revenue guidance raise
- SMCI +9.55% on the last session vs SPY +0.53%: +9.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Guidance: Raised Q1'27 revenue guidance to $18.5-19.5B versus prior $14.5-15.5B, well above consensus. (release)
- News: Super Micro raised Q1'27 revenue guidance to $18.5-19.5B versus prior $14.5-15.5B, well above consensus (Yahoo Finance). (finance.yahoo.com)
- More than its group: its ai servers & data centers peers +4.1% (+3.5 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, big gain (+9.6% on the day (line +7.5%)): After its 78 big gains in the past 5 years, SMCI was higher a week later 36 times out of 78; half the outcomes fell between -6.8% and +7.3%. History, not a forecast.
- 69 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 77% positive over the week · today's pace is 2.8× its recent daily average.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (1 positive, 0 negative); latest: Rosenblatt maintained Buy, raised target $51.00 → $57.00.
- 2 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days.
- Activity: volume 2.4× its 20-day average.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,254 | — | +0.1%631/1253 up | +0.6%670/1249 up | +3.0%683/1233 up | +9.0%740/1191 up |
| Big drop (-6.0% or worse) | 71 | — | +0.5%39/71 up | +0.6%37/71 up | +4.0%38/70 up | +10.4%47/68 up |
| Big gain latest session (+7.7% or better) | 79 | — | 0.0%38/78 up | -2.1%36/78 up | +3.2%43/78 up | +8.5%49/74 up |
| Earnings beat | 15 | +10.2%11/15 up | +0.8%8/15 up | -2.7%7/15 up | +6.3%11/15 up | +4.3%9/14 up |
| Earnings miss | 4 | -14.8%1/4 up | +0.8%2/4 up | -0.6%2/4 up | -15.5%1/4 up | -8.4%2/4 up |
| 52-week high | 8 | — | +2.0%6/8 up | +1.5%6/8 up | +5.0%5/8 up | +40.1%7/8 up |
| 52-week low | 2 | — | +8.7%2/2 up | -1.7%1/2 up | +66.0%2/2 up | +80.3%2/2 up |
| Crossed above 200-day avg latest session | 6 | — | +2.9%4/5 up | -2.7%2/5 up | -7.6%2/5 up | -8.3%2/4 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg Oct 16 | 6 | — | -0.5%3/6 up | -9.8%1/5 up | -17.5%1/5 up | -18.2%1/5 up |
| RSI oversold | 7 | — | -1.6%3/7 up | -4.3%2/7 up | -1.3%3/7 up | -19.4%2/7 up |
| RSI overbought | 16 | — | -1.6%5/16 up | -4.2%7/16 up | -0.4%7/16 up | +4.3%8/15 up |
| Volume spike | 26 | — | +0.7%15/26 up | -5.1%9/26 up | +6.0%15/26 up | +6.3%18/25 up |
| Theme selloff hindsight | 54 | — | -1.3%20/54 up | -0.9%26/54 up | +4.7%28/53 up | -4.9%23/49 up |
| Theme rally latest session hindsight | 72 | — | -0.6%32/71 up | -0.4%35/71 up | +6.1%38/71 up | -0.6%31/66 up |
| Mention spike (Trendy) latest session | 49 | — | -1.0%19/48 up | -3.5%18/48 up | 0.0%24/48 up | -4.4%21/47 up |
| Analyst upgrade | 1 | — | +5.2%1/1 up | -1.8%0/1 up | +30.8%1/1 up | -7.4%0/1 up |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | 1 | — | -1.3%0/1 up | +2.5%1/1 up | -12.4%0/1 up | -9.4%0/1 up |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is SMCI's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session or today, from the live quote.
Theme rally
The stock's theme peers (equal weight, without the stock) beat the S&P 500 by one of their best 10% gaps of the prior 2 years, and by at least 2 pts.
Hindsight: the history below is judged with today's theme lists, which were set on Oct 7, 2026 and hold the stocks that belong to each story now, including ones that didn't back then. So there is no S&P 500 comparison. The clean record starts on Oct 7, 2026: 1 theme rally since then; its record shows once there are 3.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 71 | -0.59% | 32 of 71 | -0.58% |
-33%
+19%
|
— |
| 1 week | 71 | -0.38% | 35 of 71 | -0.21% |
-30%
+41%
|
— |
| 1 month | 71 ≈38 indep. | +6.07% | 38 of 71 | +3.75% |
-46%
+118%
|
— |
| 1 quarter | 66 ≈15 indep. | -0.59% | 31 of 66 | -4.89% |
-55%
+245%
|
— |
Range of outcomes: all of SMCI's theme rallies in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Theme rally by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 38 | +0.1%37 events vs +0.2% | +3.0%37 events vs +1.1% | +9.3%37 events vs +4.2% | -6.6%33 events vs +9.9% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 34 | -0.9%34 events vs -0.4% | -2.9%34 events vs -0.1% | -1.7%34 events vs -0.4% | +3.6%33 events vs +2.9% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 41 | -0.6%41 events vs 0.0% | +0.4%41 events vs +0.1% | -0.4%41 events vs -1.8% | -1.2%37 events vs +10.4% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 31 | -0.6%30 events vs +0.1% | -1.5%30 events vs +1.7% | +10.4%30 events vs +6.8% | -0.4%29 events vs +7.2% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 40 | -0.6%40 events vs 0.0% | +1.1%40 events vs +0.2% | +9.6%40 events vs +1.3% | -2.8%36 events vs +6.7% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 32 | -0.4%31 events vs +0.1% | -1.9%31 events vs +1.7% | -4.2%31 events vs +4.3% | +2.3%30 events vs +13.9% |
The same event split by where SMCI stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Latest theme rallies
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | Oct 21 @ $35.57 | AI servers & data centers peers +3.5 pts vs SPY; the stock +9.6% | … | … | … | … |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 16 @ $36.85 | AI servers & data centers peers +3.1 pts vs SPY; the stock +3.4% | +9.5% | +12.5% | -4.8% | … |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Sep 3 @ $37.87 | AI servers & data centers peers +2.6 pts vs SPY; the stock +2.4% | +4.5% | +5.9% | +14.0% | … |
| Aug 26, 2026 | Aug 26 @ $37.39 | AI servers & data centers peers +2.9 pts vs SPY; the stock -2.8% | +2.9% | -1.0% | +15.7% | … |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Aug 12 @ $37.61 | AI servers & data centers peers +4.4 pts vs SPY; the stock +19.0% | +4.1% | -2.7% | +6.6% | … |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Jul 31 @ $28.40 | AI servers & data centers peers +2.5 pts vs SPY; the stock +2.4% | +0.8% | +9.6% | +31.3% | … |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Jul 23 @ $31.20 | AI servers & data centers peers +2.5 pts vs SPY; the stock +2.1% | -3.5% | -11.1% | +19.4% | +14.0% |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Jul 9 @ $28.24 | AI servers & data centers peers +2.8 pts vs SPY; the stock +0.2% | +0.2% | -12.6% | +10.2% | +59.1% |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Jun 30 @ $29.33 | AI servers & data centers peers +4.3 pts vs SPY; the stock +4.2% | -5.7% | -4.0% | -5.5% | +39.9% |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Jun 22 @ $35.46 | AI servers & data centers peers +3.7 pts vs SPY; the stock +15.7% | -6.0% | -20.6% | -13.8% | +16.2% |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Jun 11 @ $31.97 | AI servers & data centers peers +3.1 pts vs SPY; the stock +9.2% | -4.7% | -4.1% | -13.5% | +25.4% |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Jun 2 @ $50.17 | AI servers & data centers peers +4.4 pts vs SPY; the stock +7.0% | -5.5% | -19.0% | -45.7% | -26.8% |
| May 22, 2026 | May 22 @ $35.58 | AI servers & data centers peers +5.8 pts vs SPY; the stock +6.3% | +4.3% | +31.8% | -8.8% | -1.2% |
| May 8, 2026 | May 8 @ $35.37 | AI servers & data centers peers +3.0 pts vs SPY; the stock +5.2% | -5.2% | -12.2% | +14.9% | -11.1% |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Apr 30 @ $27.40 | AI servers & data centers peers +2.6 pts vs SPY; the stock +4.1% | -1.1% | +22.7% | +71.1% | +3.6% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.