SMCI
Super Micro Computer, Inc. · Technology · Computer Hardware
$35.57
+9.55% today · -0.59% 1W
Oct 21 close or latest
After hours $35.24 -0.93% ·
ReadoutWhy it movedthe Oct 21 session
Up on raised Q1 revenue guidance
- SMCI +9.55% on the last session vs SPY +0.53%: +9.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Guidance: Raised Q1'27 revenue guidance to $18.5-19.5B versus prior $14.5-15.5B, well above consensus. (release)
- News: Super Micro raised Q1'27 revenue guidance to $18.5-19.5B, well above consensus (Motley Fool). (fool.com)
- More than its group: its ai servers & data centers peers +4.1% (+3.5 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, big gain (+9.6% on the day (line +7.5%)): After its 78 big gains in the past 5 years, SMCI was higher a week later 36 times out of 78; half the outcomes fell between -6.8% and +7.3%. History, not a forecast.
- 62 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 77% positive over the week · today's pace is 2.8× its recent daily average.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (1 positive, 0 negative); latest: Rosenblatt maintained Buy, raised target $51.00 → $57.00.
- 2 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days.
- Activity: volume 2.4× its 20-day average.
Assembled from Wallsti's own signals and the session's headlines and filings read by AI (Claude); it can misread, so the sources are linked.
Latest session
Big gain
+9.6% on the day (line +7.5%)
After its 78 big gains in the past 5 years, SMCI was higher a week later 36 times out of 78; half the outcomes fell between -6.8% and +7.3%. History, not a forecast.
See the aftermath
Latest session
Crossed above 200-day avg
+9.6% on the day
After its 5 crosses above the 200-day average in the past 5 years, SMCI was higher a day later 4 times out of 5; half the outcomes fell between +2.3% and +4.1%. History, not a forecast.
See the aftermath
Latest session
Mention spike (Trendy)
75 mentions vs 5.6/day the week before
After its 48 mention spikes in the past 5 years, SMCI was higher a week later 18 times out of 48; half the outcomes fell between -8.2% and +5.9%. History, not a forecast.
See the aftermath
Latest session
Theme rally
AI servers & data centers peers +3.5 pts vs SPY; the stock +9.6%
See the aftermath
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,254 | — | +0.1%631/1253 up | +0.6%670/1249 up | +3.0%683/1233 up | +9.0%740/1191 up |
| Big drop (-6.0% or worse) | 71 | — | +0.5%39/71 up | +0.6%37/71 up | +4.0%38/70 up | +10.4%47/68 up |
| Big gain latest session (+7.7% or better) | 79 | — | 0.0%38/78 up | -2.1%36/78 up | +3.2%43/78 up | +8.5%49/74 up |
| Earnings beat | 15 | +10.2%11/15 up | +0.8%8/15 up | -2.7%7/15 up | +6.3%11/15 up | +4.3%9/14 up |
| Earnings miss | 4 | -14.8%1/4 up | +0.8%2/4 up | -0.6%2/4 up | -15.5%1/4 up | -8.4%2/4 up |
| 52-week high | 8 | — | +2.0%6/8 up | +1.5%6/8 up | +5.0%5/8 up | +40.1%7/8 up |
| 52-week low | 2 | — | +8.7%2/2 up | -1.7%1/2 up | +66.0%2/2 up | +80.3%2/2 up |
| Crossed above 200-day avg latest session | 6 | — | +2.9%4/5 up | -2.7%2/5 up | -7.6%2/5 up | -8.3%2/4 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg Oct 16 | 6 | — | -0.5%3/6 up | -9.8%1/5 up | -17.5%1/5 up | -18.2%1/5 up |
| RSI oversold | 7 | — | -1.6%3/7 up | -4.3%2/7 up | -1.3%3/7 up | -19.4%2/7 up |
| RSI overbought | 16 | — | -1.6%5/16 up | -4.2%7/16 up | -0.4%7/16 up | +4.3%8/15 up |
| Volume spike | 26 | — | +0.7%15/26 up | -5.1%9/26 up | +6.0%15/26 up | +6.3%18/25 up |
| Theme selloff hindsight | 54 | — | -1.3%20/54 up | -0.9%26/54 up | +4.7%28/53 up | -4.9%23/49 up |
| Theme rally latest session hindsight | 72 | — | -0.6%32/71 up | -0.4%35/71 up | +6.1%38/71 up | -0.6%31/66 up |
| Mention spike (Trendy) latest session | 49 | — | -1.0%19/48 up | -3.5%18/48 up | 0.0%24/48 up | -4.4%21/47 up |
| Analyst upgrade | 1 | — | +5.2%1/1 up | -1.8%0/1 up | +30.8%1/1 up | -7.4%0/1 up |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | 1 | — | -1.3%0/1 up | +2.5%1/1 up | -12.4%0/1 up | -9.4%0/1 up |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is SMCI's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session or today, from the live quote.
Volume spike
Volume at least 3x the prior 20 sessions' average.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 26 | +0.72% | 15 of 26 | +0.19% |
-12%
+9%
|
|
| 1 week | 26 | -5.09% | 9 of 26 | -3.91% |
-31%
+31%
|
|
| 1 month | 26 ≈24 indep. | +6.04% | 15 of 26 | +6.35% |
-35%
+86%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 25 ≈15 indep. | +6.25% | 18 of 25 | +7.30% |
-29%
+140%
|
Range of outcomes: all of SMCI's volume spikes in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Volume spike by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 12 | +1.3%12 events vs +0.2% | -1.2%12 events vs +1.1% | +6.9%12 events vs +4.2% | +20.2%11 events vs +9.9% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 9 | -3.0%9 events vs -0.4% | -5.6%9 events vs -0.1% | -1.3%9 events vs -0.4% | -11.7%9 events vs +2.9% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 16 | -1.5%16 events vs 0.0% | -4.2%16 events vs +0.1% | +5.8%16 events vs -1.8% | +4.3%15 events vs +10.4% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 10 | +1.7%10 events vs +0.1% | -5.4%10 events vs +1.7% | +12.4%10 events vs +6.8% | +8.2%10 events vs +7.2% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 18 | -1.5%18 events vs 0.0% | -5.2%18 events vs +0.2% | +6.9%18 events vs +1.3% | +4.3%17 events vs +6.7% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 8 | +1.3%8 events vs +0.1% | -4.9%8 events vs +1.7% | +2.1%8 events vs +4.3% | +17.7%8 events vs +13.9% |
The same event split by where SMCI stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Latest volume spikes
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | Aug 12 @ $37.61 | 3.4x average volume, +19.0% on the day | +4.1% | -2.7% | +6.6% | … |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Jul 22 @ $30.56 | 3.9x average volume, +19.8% on the day | +2.1% | -15.9% | +19.4% | +6.2% |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Jun 10 @ $29.27 | 4.5x average volume, -28.0% on the day | +9.2% | -5.1% | -5.5% | +27.7% |
| May 6, 2026 | May 6 @ $34.66 | 4.1x average volume, +24.5% on the day | -3.0% | -7.7% | +20.1% | -15.2% |
| Mar 20, 2026 | Mar 20 @ $20.53 | 9.9x average volume, -33.3% on the day | +5.1% | +7.0% | +38.5% | +72.7% |
| Feb 4, 2026 | Feb 4 @ $33.76 | 3.6x average volume, +13.8% on the day | -8.6% | -5.1% | -7.3% | +2.7% |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Jan 16 @ $32.64 | 3.0x average volume, +10.9% on the day | -3.8% | -5.6% | -9.0% | -11.7% |
| May 14, 2025 | May 14 @ $45.00 | 3.6x average volume, +15.7% on the day | -2.3% | -7.4% | -7.6% | +1.1% |
| Feb 19, 2025 | Feb 19 @ $60.25 | 4.6x average volume, +8.0% on the day | -1.6% | -15.2% | -35.1% | -29.0% |
| Feb 10, 2025 | Feb 10 @ $42.65 | 3.4x average volume, +17.6% on the day | -9.5% | +30.8% | -0.4% | -21.4% |
| Oct 30, 2024 | Oct 30 @ $33.07 | 5.4x average volume, -32.7% on the day | -12.0% | -31.4% | -1.3% | -18.8% |
| Aug 28, 2024 | Aug 28 @ $44.35 | 4.5x average volume, -19.0% on the day | +1.2% | -6.5% | -5.4% | -22.4% |
| Apr 19, 2024 | Apr 19 @ $71.36 | 3.3x average volume, -23.1% on the day | +0.5% | +20.1% | +26.7% | +10.2% |
| Jan 19, 2024 | Jan 19 @ $42.34 | 7.1x average volume, +35.9% on the day | +3.0% | +12.0% | +86.0% | +68.6% |
| Aug 9, 2023 | Aug 9 @ $26.61 | 3.8x average volume, -23.4% on the day | +4.1% | -4.7% | +5.5% | -4.4% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.