SMH
Reddit attention is surging
- SMH −2.12% on the last session vs SPY +0.06%: −2.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 8): After its 56 big drops in the past 5 years, SMH was higher a month later 35 times out of 56; half the outcomes fell between -2.7% and +8.9%. History, not a forecast.
- 10 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 22% positive over the week · today's pace is 1.6× its recent daily average.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 2.1× its 20-day average.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,254 | — | +0.2%676/1253 up | +0.7%704/1249 up | +2.3%763/1233 up | +8.5%790/1191 up |
| Big drop Oct 8 (-2.7% or worse) | 57 | — | +0.3%32/57 up | +0.5%30/56 up | +2.3%35/56 up | +10.6%37/52 up |
| Big gain (+2.6% or better) | 58 | — | +0.3%32/58 up | +1.5%34/58 up | +4.7%38/57 up | +11.1%42/53 up |
| Earnings beat | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Earnings miss | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 52-week high | 18 | — | +0.1%10/18 up | +0.4%10/18 up | +4.9%12/18 up | +14.2%14/18 up |
| 52-week low | 1 | — | -7.6%0/1 up | +0.3%1/1 up | +11.3%1/1 up | +43.0%1/1 up |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 7 | — | +0.9%4/7 up | +3.0%6/7 up | +10.3%5/7 up | +13.1%5/7 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 5 | — | +1.6%4/5 up | +4.5%4/5 up | +12.2%4/5 up | +8.5%3/5 up |
| RSI oversold | 3 | — | -1.2%1/3 up | +0.3%2/3 up | +4.5%2/3 up | +7.0%2/3 up |
| RSI overbought | 22 | — | +0.1%12/22 up | +1.0%13/22 up | +4.4%17/22 up | +9.4%15/22 up |
| Volume spike | 3 | — | +2.0%2/3 up | +1.3%2/3 up | +3.4%3/3 up | +23.1%1/2 up |
| Theme selloff hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Theme rally hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mention spike (Trendy) | 2 | — | +2.4%2/2 up | +4.3%2/2 up | +8.3%2/2 up | -2.5%1/2 up |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is SMH's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Any day
Every session: the plain holding return, the baseline for the events below.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 1253 | +0.19% | 676 of 1253 | +0.10% |
-10%
+17%
|
|
| 1 week | 1249 ≈250 indep. | +0.75% | 704 of 1249 | +0.55% |
-15%
+17%
|
|
| 1 month | 1233 ≈59 indep. | +2.32% | 763 of 1233 | +1.08% |
-23%
+38%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 1191 ≈19 indep. | +8.55% | 790 of 1191 | +4.97% |
-31%
+81%
|
Range of outcomes: all of SMH's days in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Any day by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 887 | +0.2%886 events vs +0.2% | +1.0%882 events vs +1.0% | +3.2%866 events vs +3.2% | +12.4%824 events vs +12.4% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 168 | 0.0%168 events vs 0.0% | +0.3%168 events vs +0.3% | -0.8%168 events vs -0.8% | +15.7%168 events vs +15.7% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 753 | +0.1%753 events vs +0.1% | +0.7%749 events vs +0.7% | +2.5%735 events vs +2.5% | +11.6%732 events vs +11.6% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 452 | +0.3%451 events vs +0.3% | +0.8%451 events vs +0.8% | +1.9%449 events vs +1.9% | +6.6%410 events vs +6.6% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 753 | +0.1%753 events vs +0.1% | +0.6%751 events vs +0.6% | +2.3%736 events vs +2.3% | +9.1%720 events vs +9.1% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 482 | +0.3%481 events vs +0.3% | +0.9%479 events vs +0.9% | +2.1%478 events vs +2.1% | +8.5%452 events vs +8.5% |
The same event split by where SMH stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.