SMH
Reddit attention is surging
- SMH −2.34% on the last session vs SPY +0.00%: −2.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 8): After its 56 big drops in the past 5 years, SMH was higher a month later 35 times out of 56; half the outcomes fell between -2.7% and +8.9%. History, not a forecast.
- 11 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 22% positive over the week · today's pace is 1.6× its recent daily average.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 2.5× its 20-day average.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,254 | — | +0.2%676/1253 up | +0.7%704/1249 up | +2.3%763/1233 up | +8.5%790/1191 up |
| Big drop Oct 8 (-2.7% or worse) | 57 | — | +0.3%32/57 up | +0.5%30/56 up | +2.3%35/56 up | +10.6%37/52 up |
| Big gain (+2.6% or better) | 58 | — | +0.3%32/58 up | +1.5%34/58 up | +4.7%38/57 up | +11.1%42/53 up |
| Earnings beat | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Earnings miss | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 52-week high | 18 | — | +0.1%10/18 up | +0.4%10/18 up | +4.9%12/18 up | +14.2%14/18 up |
| 52-week low | 1 | — | -7.6%0/1 up | +0.3%1/1 up | +11.3%1/1 up | +43.0%1/1 up |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 7 | — | +0.9%4/7 up | +3.0%6/7 up | +10.3%5/7 up | +13.1%5/7 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 5 | — | +1.6%4/5 up | +4.5%4/5 up | +12.2%4/5 up | +8.5%3/5 up |
| RSI oversold | 3 | — | -1.2%1/3 up | +0.3%2/3 up | +4.5%2/3 up | +7.0%2/3 up |
| RSI overbought | 22 | — | +0.1%12/22 up | +1.0%13/22 up | +4.4%17/22 up | +9.4%15/22 up |
| Volume spike | 3 | — | +2.0%2/3 up | +1.3%2/3 up | +3.4%3/3 up | +23.1%1/2 up |
| Theme selloff hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Theme rally hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mention spike (Trendy) | 2 | — | +2.4%2/2 up | +4.3%2/2 up | +8.3%2/2 up | -2.5%1/2 up |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is SMH's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
RSI overbought
The 14-day RSI rises above 70.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 22 | +0.14% | 12 of 22 | -0.21% |
-4%
+2%
|
|
| 1 week | 22 | +0.98% | 13 of 22 | +0.68% |
-10%
+5%
|
|
| 1 month | 22 ≈19 indep. | +4.37% | 17 of 22 | +0.91% |
-20%
+27%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 22 ≈12 indep. | +9.42% | 15 of 22 | +6.51% |
-12%
+31%
|
Range of outcomes: all of SMH's overbought readings in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
RSI overbought by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 20 | +0.2%20 events vs +0.2% | +1.2%20 events vs +1.0% | +5.2%20 events vs +3.2% | +9.4%20 events vs +12.4% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 1 | -3.6%1 events vs 0.0% | -1.6%1 events vs +0.3% | -4.6%1 events vs -0.8% | +10.3%1 events vs +15.7% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 21 | +0.2%21 events vs +0.1% | +1.1%21 events vs +0.7% | +4.7%21 events vs +2.5% | +9.8%21 events vs +11.6% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | — | — | — | — | — |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 22 | +0.1%22 events vs +0.1% | +1.0%22 events vs +0.6% | +4.4%22 events vs +2.3% | +9.4%22 events vs +9.1% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | — | — | — | — | — |
The same event split by where SMH stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Latest overbought readings
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 26, 2026 | May 26 @ $602.14 | RSI 73.6, +4.5% on the day | -1.1% | +5.0% | +5.8% | -7.7% |
| Apr 14, 2026 | Apr 14 @ $452.00 | RSI 71.9, +1.9% on the day | +0.2% | +2.8% | +26.6% | +30.7% |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Jan 28 @ $416.63 | RSI 71.2, +2.3% on the day | +0.2% | -8.3% | -2.5% | +19.9% |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Oct 29 @ $367.47 | RSI 71.5, +1.5% on the day | -1.3% | -2.5% | -4.4% | +9.8% |
| Sep 18, 2025 | Sep 18 @ $315.99 | RSI 72.9, +3.8% on the day | -0.4% | +1.3% | +8.2% | +7.0% |
| Jul 30, 2025 | Jul 30 @ $295.34 | RSI 71.6, +1.1% on the day | -2.5% | -3.3% | +0.9% | +22.6% |
| Jul 8, 2025 | Jul 8 @ $282.60 | RSI 71.4, +1.3% on the day | +0.7% | +2.6% | +1.1% | +21.1% |
| Jun 9, 2025 | Jun 9 @ $256.16 | RSI 70.3, +1.7% on the day | +2.0% | +2.5% | +11.9% | +15.9% |
| May 13, 2025 | May 13 @ $244.80 | RSI 72.4, +3.4% on the day | +1.0% | 0.0% | +7.2% | +22.7% |
| Jul 10, 2024 | Jul 10 @ $279.16 | RSI 72.3, +2.4% on the day | -3.6% | -9.6% | -20.0% | -10.2% |
| Jun 12, 2024 | Jun 12 @ $261.12 | RSI 74.4, +3.0% on the day | +1.6% | +2.2% | +4.1% | -11.1% |
| May 24, 2024 | May 24 @ $242.43 | RSI 71.6, +1.9% on the day | +2.3% | -0.3% | +6.8% | -0.7% |
| Mar 1, 2024 | Mar 1 @ $218.89 | RSI 73.9, +4.0% on the day | +1.6% | +2.0% | +2.0% | +9.0% |
| Feb 5, 2024 | Feb 5 @ $193.49 | RSI 70.8, +1.9% on the day | -1.1% | +4.2% | +16.1% | +14.2% |
| Jan 19, 2024 | Jan 19 @ $185.78 | RSI 75.2, +3.8% on the day | +0.5% | +0.6% | +5.7% | +6.4% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.