SMH
Reddit attention is surging
- SMH −2.12% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: −2.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 8): After its 56 big drops in the past 5 years, SMH was higher a month later 35 times out of 56; half the outcomes fell between -2.7% and +8.9%. History, not a forecast.
- 10 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 22% positive over the week · today's pace is 1.6× its recent daily average.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 2.1× its 20-day average.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,254 | — | +0.2%676/1253 up | +0.7%704/1249 up | +2.3%763/1233 up | +8.5%790/1191 up |
| Big drop Oct 8 (-2.7% or worse) | 57 | — | +0.3%32/57 up | +0.5%30/56 up | +2.3%35/56 up | +10.6%37/52 up |
| Big gain (+2.6% or better) | 58 | — | +0.3%32/58 up | +1.5%34/58 up | +4.7%38/57 up | +11.1%42/53 up |
| Earnings beat | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Earnings miss | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 52-week high | 18 | — | +0.1%10/18 up | +0.4%10/18 up | +4.9%12/18 up | +14.2%14/18 up |
| 52-week low | 1 | — | -7.6%0/1 up | +0.3%1/1 up | +11.3%1/1 up | +43.0%1/1 up |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 7 | — | +0.9%4/7 up | +3.0%6/7 up | +10.3%5/7 up | +13.1%5/7 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 5 | — | +1.6%4/5 up | +4.5%4/5 up | +12.2%4/5 up | +8.5%3/5 up |
| RSI oversold | 3 | — | -1.2%1/3 up | +0.3%2/3 up | +4.5%2/3 up | +7.0%2/3 up |
| RSI overbought | 22 | — | +0.1%12/22 up | +1.0%13/22 up | +4.4%17/22 up | +9.4%15/22 up |
| Volume spike | 3 | — | +2.0%2/3 up | +1.3%2/3 up | +3.4%3/3 up | +23.1%1/2 up |
| Theme selloff hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Theme rally hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mention spike (Trendy) | 2 | — | +2.4%2/2 up | +4.3%2/2 up | +8.3%2/2 up | -2.5%1/2 up |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is SMH's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Big drop (-2.7% or worse)
A daily fall among the stock's own worst 10% of the prior 2 years.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 57 | +0.33% | 32 of 57 | +0.40% |
-10%
+8%
|
|
| 1 week | 56 | +0.53% | 30 of 56 | +0.63% |
-10%
+12%
|
|
| 1 month | 56 ≈34 indep. | +2.29% | 35 of 56 | +1.01% |
-17%
+38%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 52 ≈13 indep. | +10.61% | 37 of 52 | +6.58% |
-19%
+81%
|
Range of outcomes: all of SMH's big drops in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Big drop by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 51 | +0.5%51 events vs +0.2% | +0.7%50 events vs +1.0% | +2.3%50 events vs +3.2% | +9.2%46 events vs +12.4% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 6 | -0.9%6 events vs 0.0% | -1.6%6 events vs +0.3% | +2.1%6 events vs -0.8% | +21.8%6 events vs +15.7% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 33 | 0.0%33 events vs +0.1% | 0.0%32 events vs +0.7% | +0.4%32 events vs +2.5% | +6.3%32 events vs +11.6% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 24 | +0.7%24 events vs +0.3% | +1.9%24 events vs +0.8% | +5.0%24 events vs +1.9% | +14.3%20 events vs +6.6% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 25 | +0.1%25 events vs +0.1% | -0.5%24 events vs +0.6% | -1.5%24 events vs +2.3% | +2.6%23 events vs +9.1% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 32 | +0.5%32 events vs +0.3% | +1.9%32 events vs +0.9% | +4.5%32 events vs +2.1% | +18.0%29 events vs +8.5% |
The same event split by where SMH stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Latest big drops
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | Oct 8 @ $607.27 | -2.8% on the day (line -2.6%) | -0.6% | … | … | … |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 14 @ $541.50 | -4.8% on the day (line -2.6%) | +0.1% | +10.1% | +8.6% | … |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Aug 28 @ $553.11 | -3.5% on the day (line -2.6%) | +0.6% | +2.5% | +9.7% | … |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Aug 18 @ $569.77 | -4.1% on the day (line -2.6%) | -1.6% | -2.4% | -1.6% | … |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Jul 24 @ $561.19 | -3.3% on the day (line -2.7%) | -2.3% | -3.7% | -2.6% | … |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Jul 16 @ $568.92 | -3.7% on the day (line -2.8%) | -2.2% | +2.0% | +3.3% | -0.7% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Jul 7 @ $581.45 | -3.8% on the day (line -2.7%) | +2.0% | +3.2% | -2.0% | +9.0% |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Jun 26 @ $611.61 | -4.0% on the day (line -2.6%) | +3.3% | -1.2% | -13.4% | -0.8% |
| Jun 16, 2026 | Jun 16 @ $616.00 | -4.8% on the day (line -2.6%) | +1.3% | +0.5% | -9.7% | -11.4% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Jun 5 @ $569.69 | -9.2% on the day (line -2.5%) | +5.0% | +8.8% | +4.1% | -0.5% |
| May 12, 2026 | May 12 @ $561.25 | -2.6% on the day (line -2.5%) | +2.0% | -3.1% | +8.6% | +4.2% |
| Apr 28, 2026 | Apr 28 @ $491.21 | -3.0% on the day (line -2.5%) | +1.7% | +6.4% | +22.1% | +2.6% |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Mar 30 @ $362.53 | -3.1% on the day (line -2.6%) | +5.8% | +10.3% | +37.8% | +80.9% |
| Mar 20, 2026 | Mar 20 @ $384.74 | -2.6% on the day (line -2.5%) | +1.7% | -2.7% | +20.8% | +73.9% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | Mar 6 @ $380.56 | -3.7% on the day (line -2.5%) | +3.6% | +1.8% | +5.1% | +49.7% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.