USAR
Reddit attention is surging
- USAR +4.55% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +4.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- News: Wholesale inflation data and fuel costs shift focus to rare earth supply challenges, per Yahoo Finance. (finance.yahoo.com)
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 14): After its 56 big drops in the past 5 years, USAR was higher a day later 23 times out of 56; half the outcomes fell between -3.8% and +2.2%. History, not a forecast.
- 10 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 76% positive over the week · today's pace is 1.8× its recent daily average.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days, including 1 insider sale not under a 10b5-1 plan.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 2.0× its 20-day average.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 816 | — | 0.0%342/815 up | +0.1%441/811 up | +0.5%552/795 up | +1.4%572/753 up |
| Big drop Oct 14 (-8.1% or worse) | 57 | — | -0.1%23/56 up | 0.0%27/56 up | +0.9%33/56 up | +4.6%35/56 up |
| Big gain (+9.2% or better) | 57 | — | 0.0%29/57 up | +1.0%34/57 up | +0.4%31/56 up | +2.6%33/53 up |
| Earnings beat | 3 | +6.4%2/3 up | -1.8%1/3 up | -3.7%0/3 up | -7.3%1/3 up | -9.5%1/3 up |
| Earnings miss | 3 | -0.7%1/3 up | -0.7%1/3 up | -2.1%1/3 up | +0.9%2/3 up | +38.8%2/2 up |
| 52-week high | 8 | — | 0.0%3/8 up | +0.1%5/8 up | +0.4%5/8 up | +1.1%5/8 up |
| 52-week low Oct 12 | 2 | — | -17.0%0/2 up | -37.5%0/1 up | +14.5%1/1 up | +33.7%1/1 up |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 7 | — | +0.8%4/7 up | +3.5%4/7 up | -8.6%3/7 up | +19.2%5/6 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 8 | — | -0.2%4/8 up | +1.2%5/8 up | -4.2%4/8 up | +24.3%5/7 up |
| RSI oversold Oct 8 | 3 | — | +0.9%2/3 up | +16.5%2/2 up | +27.2%2/2 up | +4.2%1/1 up |
| RSI overbought | 21 | — | 0.0%9/21 up | 0.0%8/21 up | +0.2%14/21 up | +1.1%16/21 up |
| Volume spike | 36 | — | 0.0%18/36 up | +0.1%20/36 up | +0.4%26/36 up | +1.3%29/36 up |
| Theme selloff hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Theme rally hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mention spike (Trendy) | 3 | — | -4.4%0/3 up | -13.8%0/3 up | -31.2%0/3 up | -13.6%0/3 up |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | 2 | — | -1.4%0/2 up | -2.6%0/2 up | -13.4%0/2 up | +17.4%2/2 up |
| Insider unplanned sale | 2 | — | -3.2%0/2 up | -6.9%1/2 up | -11.6%0/1 up | -18.4%0/1 up |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is USAR's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Big drop (-8.1% or worse)
A daily fall among the stock's own worst 10% of the prior 2 years.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 56 | -0.13% | 23 of 56 | -0.63% |
-18%
+15%
|
|
| 1 week | 56 | -0.02% | 27 of 56 | -0.99% |
-49%
+61%
|
|
| 1 month | 56 ≈24 indep. | +0.89% | 33 of 56 | -0.94% |
-49%
+116%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 56 ≈8 indep. | +4.64% | 35 of 56 | +3.16% |
-39%
+190%
|
Range of outcomes: all of USAR's big drops in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Big drop by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 39 | -0.1%39 events vs 0.0% | -5.9%39 events vs 0.0% | +0.2%39 events vs +0.4% | +1.2%39 events vs +1.4% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 18 | -0.4%17 events vs -0.1% | +2.9%17 events vs +1.9% | +30.8%17 events vs +17.6% | +50.2%17 events vs +35.2% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 33 | 0.0%33 events vs 0.0% | -0.6%33 events vs +0.1% | +0.3%33 events vs +0.4% | +1.5%33 events vs +1.3% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 24 | -0.2%23 events vs -0.3% | +1.5%23 events vs +0.5% | +7.7%23 events vs +6.7% | +15.5%23 events vs +19.9% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 26 | 0.0%26 events vs 0.0% | -6.1%26 events vs +0.1% | +0.2%26 events vs +0.4% | +1.3%26 events vs +1.3% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 31 | -0.3%30 events vs -0.4% | +1.9%30 events vs +0.2% | +8.0%30 events vs +3.5% | +17.3%30 events vs +14.6% |
The same event split by where USAR stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Latest big drops
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 14 @ $10.32 | -8.5% on the day (line -8.1%) | … | … | … | … |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Jul 16 @ $15.91 | -8.1% on the day (line -8.0%) | -1.6% | -4.8% | +25.7% | -35.1% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Jul 7 @ $17.78 | -8.1% on the day (line -7.8%) | +3.8% | +2.3% | -3.5% | -23.2% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Jun 3 @ $27.98 | -8.9% on the day (line -7.4%) | -3.1% | -27.3% | -30.8% | -36.2% |
| May 18, 2026 | May 18 @ $21.27 | -12.8% on the day (line -7.0%) | -6.2% | +30.3% | +10.7% | -13.0% |
| May 7, 2026 | May 7 @ $26.38 | -7.8% on the day (line -6.9%) | +2.2% | -5.9% | -15.8% | -26.7% |
| Apr 23, 2026 | Apr 23 @ $23.09 | -9.1% on the day (line -6.8%) | -5.3% | +12.5% | +9.6% | -38.7% |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Mar 30 @ $14.23 | -7.7% on the day (line -6.7%) | +6.4% | +2.9% | +54.8% | +51.7% |
| Mar 20, 2026 | Mar 20 @ $16.24 | -8.8% on the day (line -6.6%) | +7.1% | -5.0% | +40.7% | +48.5% |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Mar 3 @ $19.42 | -7.0% on the day (line -6.4%) | -2.6% | +5.3% | -23.8% | +58.1% |
| Feb 10, 2026 | Feb 10 @ $21.88 | -6.7% on the day (line -6.4%) | -0.5% | -16.8% | -9.7% | +16.8% |
| Jan 29, 2026 | Jan 29 @ $22.07 | -12.3% on the day (line -6.0%) | +1.6% | -6.7% | -5.4% | +17.7% |
| Jan 13, 2026 | Jan 13 @ $16.67 | -6.0% on the day (line -5.9%) | +9.7% | +16.0% | +14.5% | +10.1% |
| Dec 26, 2025 | Dec 26 @ $13.51 | -7.0% on the day (line -5.5%) | -6.0% | +16.9% | +86.4% | +5.3% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | Dec 12 @ $17.04 | -9.2% on the day (line -5.0%) | -12.7% | -18.8% | +7.3% | +15.5% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.