USAR
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- USAR +4.02% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: +3.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- News: Wholesale inflation data and fuel costs shift focus to rare earth supply challenges, per Yahoo Finance. (finance.yahoo.com)
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 14): After its 56 big drops in the past 5 years, USAR was higher a day later 23 times out of 56; half the outcomes fell between -3.8% and +2.2%. History, not a forecast.
- 13 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 75% positive over the week · today's pace is 1.5× its recent daily average.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days, including 1 insider sale not under a 10b5-1 plan.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 2.9× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices USAR only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
10.77 +4.4% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% reached today |
11.36 +10.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 10.73 · prior close 10.32 | |
| Bargain buy side |
9.89 -4.2% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
9.37 -9.2% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 9.75 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 10.92 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 9.89 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 10.77 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 10.02 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 10.63 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 9.09 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 11.72 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 9.37 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 11.36 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 9.65 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 11.03 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From USAR's daily swings (about 4.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 2026 | -8.1% | -4.8% | +25.7% | -35.1% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -8.1% | +2.3% | -3.5% | -23.2% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -8.9% | -27.3% | -30.8% | -36.2% |
| May 18, 2026 | -12.8% | +30.3% | +10.7% | -13.0% |
| May 7, 2026 | -7.8% | -5.9% | -15.8% | -26.7% |
| Apr 23, 2026 | -9.1% | +12.5% | +9.6% | -38.7% |
| Mar 30, 2026 | -7.7% | +2.9% | +54.8% | +51.7% |
| Mar 20, 2026 | -8.8% | -5.0% | +40.7% | +48.5% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | -5.9% | — | — | — |
| Mar 24, 2025 | -14.4% | -37.5% | +14.5% | +33.7% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among USAR's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 45.00 +319.2% |
| All-time closing high Oct 13, 2025 |
38.68 +260.3% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 14, 2025 |
37.54 +249.7% |
| Mean analyst target | 35.56 +231.2% |
| Lowest analyst target | 21.00 +95.6% |
| 200-day average | 19.23 +79.1% |
| 50-day average | 16.19 +50.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 11.36 +5.8% |
| Now | 10.73 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
10.32 -3.9% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
10.32 -3.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 9.37 -12.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 3 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.