USAR
USA Rare Earth, Inc. · Basic Materials · Other Industrial Metals & Mining
$10.74
+4.07% today · -14.96% 1W
Oct 15 close or latest
ReadoutWhy it's moving
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- USAR +4.07% on the last session vs SPY +0.02%: +4.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- News: Wholesale inflation data and fuel costs shift focus to rare earth supply challenges, per Yahoo Finance. (finance.yahoo.com)
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 14): After its 56 big drops in the past 5 years, USAR was higher a day later 23 times out of 56; half the outcomes fell between -3.8% and +2.2%. History, not a forecast.
- 13 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 75% positive over the week · today's pace is 1.5× its recent daily average.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days, including 1 insider sale not under a 10b5-1 plan.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 2.4× its 20-day average.
Assembled from Wallsti's own signals and the session's headlines and filings read by AI (Claude); it can misread, so the sources are linked.
Next report
Nov 5
In 21 days
estimated date
EPS estimate
−$0.15
−$0.38 to −$0.04 · 5 analysts
Revenue estimate
$13.6M
$6.0M to $31.1M
Track record
3/6 beats
last 6 reports · moved ±8.4% on average
Reports
| Reported | Quarter | EPS est. | EPS | EPS surprise | Revenue | Reaction | Gap | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 10, 2026 AMC | 2Q2026 | −$0.13 | −$0.15 | −$0.02 (−19.0%) miss | $5.8M | -0.7% -0.4 vs SPY | -1.6% | +1.3% |
| May 13, 2026 AMC | 1Q2026 | −$0.23 | −$0.12 | +$0.11 (+46.7%) beat | $5.7M | -2.3% -3.1 vs SPY | +1.4% | -11.2% |
| Mar 30, 2026 BMO | 4Q2025 | −$0.14 | −$0.19 | −$0.05 (−39.0%) miss | $1.6M | -7.7% -7.4 vs SPY | +1.7% | -0.9% |
| Nov 6, 2025 AMC | 3Q2025 | −$0.07 | −$0.25 | −$0.18 miss | — | +9.7% +9.6 vs SPY | -6.1% | -6.1% |
| Aug 11, 2025 AMC | −$0.13 | −$0.08 | +$0.05 (+38.5%) beat | — | +23.3% +22.3 vs SPY | +2.0% | +1.7% | |
| May 14, 2025 AMC | −$0.04 | $0.58 | +$0.62 beat | — | +6.4% +5.9 vs SPY | -1.3% | +3.6% |
BMO = before the open, AMC = after the close. Reaction: the first session that could trade on the report (the same day for BMO, the next session for AMC) against the close before it; "vs SPY" subtracts the S&P 500 over the same session. EPS surprise is in dollars, with the percentage only when the estimate is at least $0.10 (near zero, a small beat would show as hundreds of percent). Revenue surprise needs the estimate from before the report, so it starts with the reports Wallsti saw coming.
Analyst estimates
| Period | EPS | Range | vs year ago | 90-day trend | Revisions 30d | Revenue | vs year ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter · Sep 30, 2026 | −$0.15 (5) | −$0.38 – −$0.04 | +42% | -8.8% | ▲0 ▼1 | $13.6M | 0% |
| Next quarter · Dec 31, 2026 | −$0.10 (3) | −$0.13 – −$0.06 | +49% | +48.7% | ▲1 ▼2 | $47.1M | +2768% |
| Current year · Dec 31, 2026 | −$0.57 (4) | −$0.78 – −$0.41 | +30% | +3.0% | ▲1 ▼1 | $73.5M | +4375% |
| Next year · Dec 31, 2027 | $0.03 (4) | −$1.32 – $1.07 | +105% | -10.0% | ▲0 ▼3 | $713.3M | +870% |
Consensus as of Oct 15, 2026. Source: Yahoo Finance analyst estimates; schedule and timing also from Nasdaq's earnings calendar.