Aftermath
After a big drop, over the next quarter
A daily fall among the stock's own worst 10% of the prior 2 years. So "big" depends on the stock: a quiet stock's big day is a volatile stock's normal one; each stock's own line is shown under its name. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +3.92% over the next quarter after a big drop (half of them between +1.00% and +6.97%), against +2.15% on any day.
Latest big drops, last few sessions
| Entry | Stock | Its median, 1 quarter | Confidence | Rank | Up | Events | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | ACN Accenture | -6.3% on the day (line -2.6%) | -1.85% | Medium | #382 of 499 | 48% | 61 |
| Oct 2 | ADP Automatic Data Processing | -2.4% on the day (line -1.6%) | -0.72% | Medium | #393 of 499 | 50% | 62 |
| Oct 2 | AJG Arthur J. Gallagher … | -2.5% on the day (line -2.0%) | +3.70% | Medium | #254 of 499 | 58% | 55 |
| Oct 2 | AON Aon plc | -2.4% on the day (line -1.7%) | +0.49% | Medium | #442 of 499 | 56% | 59 |
| Oct 2 | BR Broadridge Financial Solutions | -2.6% on the day (line -1.8%) | +0.27% | Medium | #396 of 499 | 54% | 48 |
| Oct 2 | BRO Brown & Brown | -3.0% on the day (line -1.9%) | -0.90% | Medium | #348 of 499 | 49% | 59 |
| Oct 2 | CTSH Cognizant | -3.9% on the day (line -2.4%) | +3.92% | Medium | #248 of 499 | 61% | 62 |
| Oct 2 | FDS FactSet | -4.2% on the day (line -2.6%) | +0.64% | Medium | #415 of 499 | 52% | 62 |
| Oct 2 | ISRG Intuitive Surgical | -2.3% on the day (line -2.2%) | +4.67% | Medium | #227 of 499 | 57% | 58 |
| Oct 2 | IT Gartner | -4.2% on the day (line -3.0%) | -3.21% | Medium | #486 of 499 | 37% | 54 |
| Oct 2 | LDOS Leidos | -3.5% on the day (line -2.1%) | -0.84% | Medium | #314 of 499 | 49% | 57 |
| Oct 2 | NKE Nike, Inc. | -3.6% on the day (line -2.4%) | -7.86% | Medium | #497 of 499 | 35% | 55 |
| Oct 2 | NVR NVR, Inc. | -2.2% on the day (line -2.1%) | -0.33% | Medium | #413 of 499 | 49% | 63 |
| Oct 2 | PAYX Paychex | -1.9% on the day (line -1.9%) | +2.64% | Medium | #277 of 499 | 56% | 62 |
| Oct 2 | ROP Roper Technologies | -2.0% on the day (line -1.9%) | +0.87% | Medium | #456 of 499 | 55% | 60 |
| Oct 2 | ROST Ross Stores | -2.4% on the day (line -1.6%) | +4.44% | Medium | #226 of 499 | 73% | 45 |
| Oct 2 | SCHW Charles Schwab Corporation | -1.7% on the day (line -1.6%) | +6.35% | Medium | #158 of 499 | 62% | 48 |
| Oct 2 | STX Seagate Technology | -10.2% on the day (line -3.6%) | +23.72% | Medium | #166 of 499 | 89% | 56 |
| Oct 2 | VEEV Veeva Systems | -3.0% on the day (line -2.6%) | +7.38% | Medium | #108 of 499 | 65% | 54 |
| Oct 2 | VRSK Verisk Analytics | -2.7% on the day (line -2.0%) | +2.15% | Medium | #338 of 499 | 56% | 55 |
| Oct 2 | WDC Western Digital | -10.2% on the day (line -4.0%) | +14.12% | Medium | #210 of 499 | 76% | 49 |
| Oct 1 | A Agilent Technologies | -3.3% on the day (line -2.2%) | +6.45% | Medium | #146 of 499 | 62% | 58 |
| Oct 1 | AMGN Amgen | -3.4% on the day (line -1.8%) | +5.54% | Medium | #178 of 499 | 61% | 71 |
| Oct 1 | BRUN | -3.7% on the day (line -3.2%) | — | — | |||
| Oct 1 | CRL Charles River Laboratories | -2.8% on the day (line -2.7%) | +2.58% | Medium | #288 of 499 | 58% | 57 |
| Oct 1 | CTVA Corteva | -83.8% on the day (line -1.5%) | +0.64% | Medium | #371 of 499 | 53% | 57 |
| Oct 1 | DHR Danaher Corporation | -4.4% on the day (line -2.1%) | +1.69% | Medium | #333 of 499 | 54% | 56 |
| Oct 1 | DIS Walt Disney Company … | -3.4% on the day (line -1.7%) | +1.90% | Medium | #370 of 499 | 54% | 56 |
| Oct 1 | DOC Healthpeak Properties | -2.6% on the day (line -1.7%) | +2.77% | Medium | #378 of 499 | 66% | 53 |
| Oct 1 | FOX Fox Corporation (Class … | -2.5% on the day (line -2.0%) | +6.51% | Medium | #96 of 499 | 67% | 55 |
| Oct 1 | FOXA Fox Corporation (Class … | -2.2% on the day (line -2.1%) | +7.04% | Medium | #95 of 499 | 70% | 57 |
| Oct 1 | ILMN Illumina, Inc. | -2.9% on the day (line -2.9%) | +5.86% | Medium | #211 of 499 | 61% | 57 |
| Oct 1 | INCY Incyte | -3.5% on the day (line -2.1%) | +0.91% | Medium | #298 of 499 | 53% | 62 |
| Oct 1 | IQV IQVIA | -3.0% on the day (line -2.4%) | +4.10% | Medium | #239 of 499 | 58% | 59 |
| Oct 1 | KMB Kimberly-Clark | -3.2% on the day (line -1.6%) | -0.15% | Medium | #444 of 499 | 49% | 61 |
| Oct 1 | KVUE Kenvue | -2.5% on the day (line -1.9%) | +0.73% | Medium | #301 of 499 | 57% | 35 |
| Oct 1 | LVS Las Vegas Sands | -3.0% on the day (line -2.4%) | -5.14% | Medium | #392 of 499 | 41% | 58 |
| Oct 1 | NIVF | -39.9% on the day (line -14.2%) | -47.57% | Medium | #380 of 499 | 25% | 72 |
| Oct 1 | O Realty Income | -1.4% on the day (line -1.3%) | +3.42% | Medium | #320 of 499 | 66% | 59 |
| Oct 1 | PSKY Paramount Skydance Corporation | -9.6% on the day (line -3.2%) | +0.57% | Medium | #325 of 499 | 53% | 59 |
| Oct 1 | RSG Republic Services | -1.4% on the day (line -1.3%) | +1.92% | Medium | #383 of 499 | 59% | 54 |
| Oct 1 | SJM J.M. Smucker Company … | -2.5% on the day (line -1.9%) | -1.04% | Medium | #475 of 499 | 49% | 68 |
| Oct 1 | TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific | -3.3% on the day (line -2.0%) | +3.30% | Medium | #262 of 499 | 56% | 61 |
| Oct 1 | VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | -3.1% on the day (line -1.9%) | +5.61% | Medium | #185 of 499 | 55% | 56 |
| Oct 1 | WAT Waters Corporation | -3.1% on the day (line -2.1%) | +5.80% | Medium | #199 of 499 | 63% | 54 |
| Sep 30 | ACGL Arch Capital Group | -2.9% on the day (line -1.7%) | +3.72% | Medium | #283 of 499 | 71% | 59 |
| Sep 30 | AFL Aflac | -1.6% on the day (line -1.3%) | +3.97% | Medium | #275 of 499 | 73% | 56 |
| Sep 30 | AOS A. O. Smith | -2.8% on the day (line -2.0%) | +1.68% | Medium | #345 of 499 | 61% | 51 |
| Sep 30 | APP AppLovin | -5.0% on the day (line -4.8%) | +22.54% | Medium | #131 of 499 | 71% | 51 |
| Sep 30 | BNY BNY Mellon | -1.6% on the day (line -1.4%) | +12.21% | Medium | #5 of 499 | 91% | 46 |
| Sep 30 | CB Chubb Limited | -2.1% on the day (line -1.4%) | +4.99% | Medium | #152 of 499 | 73% | 55 |
| Sep 30 | CEG Constellation Energy | -4.0% on the day (line -3.6%) | +7.47% | Medium | #111 of 499 | 60% | 63 |
| Sep 30 | COR Cencora | -2.4% on the day (line -1.5%) | +6.02% | Medium | #143 of 499 | 73% | 55 |
| Sep 30 | COST Costco | -1.5% on the day (line -1.4%) | +4.49% | Medium | #224 of 499 | 58% | 62 |
| Sep 30 | FLEX Flex Ltd. | -3.4% on the day (line -3.3%) | +16.77% | Medium | #10 of 499 | 77% | 56 |
| Sep 30 | GIS General Mills | -4.9% on the day (line -2.2%) | -4.02% | Medium | #495 of 499 | 34% | 76 |
| Sep 30 | HIG Hartford (The) | -2.8% on the day (line -1.5%) | +5.68% | Medium | #75 of 499 | 79% | 53 |
| Sep 30 | HSY Hershey Company (The) | -2.4% on the day (line -2.1%) | -0.91% | Medium | #454 of 499 | 49% | 73 |
| Sep 30 | IDXX Idexx Laboratories | -2.1% on the day (line -2.1%) | +1.26% | Medium | #364 of 499 | 55% | 55 |
| Sep 30 | IFF International Flavors & … | -2.1% on the day (line -2.0%) | +7.33% | Medium | #149 of 499 | 59% | 56 |
Best after a big drop
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GE GE Aerospace (-2.2% or worse) | +15.45%+12.6 to +17.2 | Medium | +15.13% | 88% | +9.51% | -8% · +45% | 51 |
| 2 | HWM Howmet Aerospace (-2.2% or worse) | +16.69%+12.9 to +19.7 | Medium | +17.87% | 95% | +12.89% | -11% · +52% | 55 |
| 3 | GS Goldman Sachs (-1.9% or worse) | +11.71%+10.8 to +14.3 | Medium | +12.31% | 77% | +5.67% | -15% · +43% | 57 |
| 4 | WELL Welltower (-1.5% or worse) | +11.10%+9.1 to +12.9 | Medium | +11.09% | 96% | +5.89% | -1% · +27% | 55 |
| 5 | BNY BNY Mellon (-1.4% or worse) | +12.21%+10.4 to +15.0 | Medium | +12.80% | 91% | +7.38% | -17% · +34% | 46 |
| 6 | WAB Wabtec (-1.7% or worse) | +11.26%+9.6 to +15.5 | Medium | +10.20% | 78% | +6.32% | -13% · +27% | 50 |
| 7 | MCK McKesson Corporation (-1.7% or worse) | +11.18%+6.9 to +12.2 | Medium | +7.72% | 76% | +6.72% | -24% · +31% | 68 |
| 8 | ARES Ares Management (-3.0% or worse) | +11.33%+9.5 to +13.9 | Medium | +6.23% | 70% | +3.64% | -36% · +49% | 53 |
| 9 | TTWO Take-Two Interactive (-2.0% or worse) | +11.54%+7.4 to +13.9 | Medium | +8.93% | 77% | +4.46% | -22% · +26% | 57 |
| 10 | FLEX Flex Ltd. (-3.3% or worse) | +16.77%+10.8 to +20.9 | Medium | +23.82% | 77% | +10.66% | -28% · +153% | 56 |
| 11 | CAH Cardinal Health (-1.5% or worse) | +7.81%+7.1 to +8.9 | Medium | +10.55% | 82% | +1.67% | -17% · +41% | 51 |
| 12 | ANET Arista Networks (-3.8% or worse) | +20.45%+13.0 to +24.4 | Medium | +19.77% | 79% | +13.98% | -34% · +73% | 61 |
| 13 | MS Morgan Stanley (-1.9% or worse) | +12.80%+8.0 to +15.2 | Medium | +11.16% | 80% | +4.81% | -12% · +35% | 51 |
| 14 | AVGO Broadcom (-3.3% or worse) | +19.16%+12.0 to +24.0 | Medium | +17.46% | 74% | +13.64% | -27% · +78% | 66 |
| 15 | CASY Casey's (-1.9% or worse) | +9.68%+5.9 to +12.3 | Medium | +8.69% | 86% | +2.34% | -31% · +36% | 56 |
| 16 | C Citigroup (-2.0% or worse) | +10.12%+6.8 to +13.5 | Medium | +11.36% | 74% | +3.64% | -13% · +52% | 50 |
| 17 | VTR Ventas (-1.5% or worse) | +8.68%+5.2 to +9.7 | Medium | +8.06% | 70% | +4.21% | -11% · +42% | 53 |
| 18 | ECL Ecolab (-1.5% or worse) | +7.63%+5.3 to +8.4 | Medium | +6.36% | 82% | +1.24% | -17% · +21% | 51 |
| 19 | JCI Johnson Controls (-1.7% or worse) | +9.50%+5.7 to +12.6 | Medium | +9.58% | 83% | +3.64% | -22% · +43% | 53 |
| 20 | HLT Hilton Worldwide (-1.7% or worse) | +7.93%+5.8 to +9.2 | Medium | +8.01% | 79% | +1.79% | -11% · +34% | 52 |
| 21 | PH Parker Hannifin (-1.7% or worse) | +10.11%+7.7 to +14.7 | Medium | +11.14% | 82% | +6.18% | -15% · +32% | 56 |
| 22 | STT State Street Corporation (-1.6% or worse) | +12.97%+8.6 to +17.2 | Medium | +11.04% | 78% | +6.79% | -23% · +40% | 49 |
| 23 | TSM meme (-2.8% or worse) | +13.62%+7.3 to +18.8 | Medium | +14.47% | 79% | +8.51% | -25% · +59% | 56 |
| 24 | TRV Travelers Companies (The) (-1.5% or worse) | +7.28%+5.6 to +8.2 | Medium | +8.02% | 85% | +1.45% | -8% · +34% | 55 |
| 25 | SPG Simon Property Group (-1.4% or worse) | +8.69%+5.2 to +10.6 | Medium | +6.33% | 76% | +1.20% | -12% · +34% | 45 |
Worst after a big drop
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAPS meme (-7.3% or worse) | -28.12%-31.7 to -25.0 | Medium | -26.97% | 7% | -35.38% | -62% · +12% | 54 |
| 2 | ERIE Erie Indemnity (-2.6% or worse) | -7.67%-8.6 to -4.4 | Medium | -0.80% | 34% | -12.68% | -23% · +52% | 71 |
| 3 | KHC Kraft Heinz (-2.0% or worse) | -1.77%-3.1 to +0.6 | Medium | -0.92% | 40% | -5.76% | -17% · +24% | 63 |
| 4 | NKE Nike, Inc. (-2.5% or worse) | -7.86%-9.9 to -3.2 | Medium | -2.30% | 35% | -12.46% | -30% · +44% | 55 |
| 5 | FIS Fidelity National Information … (-2.2% or worse) | -6.25%-7.9 to -2.5 | Medium | -4.54% | 30% | -9.06% | -26% · +31% | 53 |
| 6 | GIS General Mills (-2.2% or worse) | -4.02%-6.4 to -0.6 | Medium | -3.05% | 34% | -8.97% | -24% · +28% | 76 |
| 7 | HRL Hormel Foods (-1.7% or worse) | -2.22%-4.6 to -0.9 | Medium | -3.29% | 34% | -9.55% | -21% · +26% | 67 |
| 8 | WEN meme (-3.0% or worse) | -7.70%-10.4 to -1.7 | Medium | -4.77% | 30% | -10.86% | -27% · +24% | 70 |
| 9 | ESS Essex Property Trust (-1.6% or worse) | -0.17%-1.6 to +1.6 | Medium | +1.78% | 45% | -3.63% | -12% · +19% | 51 |
| 10 | CPT Camden Property Trust (-1.6% or worse) | -0.36%-1.3 to 0.0 | Medium | +1.79% | 44% | -6.73% | -15% · +23% | 54 |
| 11 | ZBH Zimmer Biomet (-1.9% or worse) | -0.93%-2.6 to +0.7 | Medium | -0.30% | 45% | -5.99% | -22% · +23% | 56 |
| 12 | TLT meme (-0.9% or worse) | -0.42%-1.4 to +1.5 | Medium | +0.89% | 48% | -4.76% | -15% · +14% | 46 |
| 13 | MKC McCormick & Company (-2.1% or worse) | -2.22%-4.0 to +1.0 | Medium | -2.27% | 43% | -9.35% | -32% · +24% | 69 |
| 14 | MOS Mosaic Company (The) (-2.9% or worse) | -2.27%-4.6 to +0.4 | Medium | +0.43% | 42% | -5.69% | -30% · +60% | 50 |
| 15 | WY Weyerhaeuser (-2.1% or worse) | -2.56%-4.5 to +0.8 | Medium | -0.83% | 40% | -6.90% | -19% · +20% | 58 |
| 16 | BF-B Brown–Forman (-2.7% or worse) | -3.19%-6.5 to +0.5 | Medium | -3.18% | 42% | -8.32% | -29% · +21% | 73 |
| 17 | IT Gartner (-3.0% or worse) | -3.21%-5.5 to -1.0 | Medium | -4.43% | 37% | -8.03% | -43% · +42% | 54 |
| 18 | PG Procter & Gamble (-1.5% or worse) | +0.38%-1.4 to +2.7 | Medium | +1.09% | 51% | -3.87% | -14% · +23% | 57 |
| 19 | AWK American Water Works (-1.6% or worse) | +0.10%-1.5 to +2.4 | Medium | +1.73% | 51% | -5.43% | -19% · +22% | 57 |
| 20 | XYL Xylem Inc. (-1.7% or worse) | -0.35%-3.3 to +0.8 | Medium | +0.43% | 47% | -4.90% | -20% · +26% | 53 |
| 21 | HUM Humana (-2.8% or worse) | -5.74%-9.1 to -0.8 | Medium | +1.45% | 39% | -8.08% | -35% · +131% | 64 |
| 22 | AMT American Tower (-2.0% or worse) | -0.96%-3.6 to +1.3 | Medium | +1.53% | 45% | -6.66% | -18% · +26% | 56 |
| 23 | CCI Crown Castle (-2.2% or worse) | -3.94%-7.0 to +2.2 | Medium | -1.14% | 39% | -8.69% | -22% · +30% | 61 |
| 24 | STZ Constellation Brands (-2.2% or worse) | -3.59%-6.6 to +0.1 | Medium | -3.08% | 38% | -10.61% | -28% · +29% | 66 |
| 25 | CDW CDW Corporation (-2.8% or worse) | -2.82%-6.5 to +1.1 | Medium | -0.73% | 40% | -3.79% | -25% · +31% | 58 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next quarter from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.