SOFI
Up on record loan originations, deposits, growth
- SOFI +3.41% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +3.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- News: 247wallst.com reports SoFi posted record loan originations, deposits, and member growth. (247wallst.com)
- More than its group: its brokers & fintech peers +1.4% (+1.3 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 14): After its 53 big drops in the past 5 years, SOFI was higher a month later 29 times out of 53; half the outcomes fell between -8.4% and +15.4%. History, not a forecast.
- 13 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 74% positive over the week.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: TD Cowen maintained Hold, lowered target $18.00 → $17.50.
- 2 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SOFI only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
14.61 +2.7% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% reached today |
15.10 +6.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 14.70 · prior close 14.22 | |
| Bargain buy side |
13.84 -2.7% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
13.39 -5.8% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 13.72 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 14.74 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 13.84 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 14.61 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 13.96 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 14.49 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 13.13 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 15.40 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 13.39 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 15.10 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 13.64 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 14.83 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SOFI's daily swings (about 2.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | -5.8% | +0.9% | -11.9% | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | -8.9% | +19.7% | +25.8% | — |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -4.6% | +4.5% | +2.8% | -10.3% |
| Jun 22, 2026 | -4.5% | +6.4% | -0.2% | -0.8% |
| Jun 2, 2026 | -4.5% | -7.2% | +2.8% | -3.9% |
| Apr 23, 2026 | -3.9% | -12.1% | -14.7% | -10.2% |
| Mar 26, 2026 | -4.2% | -0.1% | +18.2% | +12.7% |
| Mar 12, 2026 | -4.5% | -3.5% | -3.7% | -5.8% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14, 2024 | -5.0% | +1.2% | +21.4% | +24.8% |
| Nov 22, 2022 | -4.7% | +4.1% | -1.3% | +37.5% |
| Sep 26, 2022 | -4.3% | +1.0% | +11.4% | -9.3% |
| Apr 8, 2022 | -3.1% | -9.4% | -33.3% | -23.3% |
| Feb 22, 2022 | -9.9% | +9.2% | -8.7% | -29.1% |
| Jan 7, 2022 | -0.3% | -3.9% | -11.7% | -42.7% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among SOFI's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Nov 12, 2025 |
32.21 +119.0% |
| Highest analyst target | 30.00 +104.0% |
| Mean analyst target | 20.36 +38.5% |
| 200-day average | 18.43 +25.3% |
| 50-day average | 17.16 +16.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 15.10 +2.7% |
| Now | 14.70 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
14.22 -3.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
14.22 -3.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 13.39 -8.9% |
| Lowest analyst target | 12.00 -18.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 6 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.