Aftermath
After a Reddit spike, over the next week
Daily Reddit mentions at least 3x the prior week's average (20 or more); entry the next session. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +0.26% over the next week after a Reddit spike (half of them between -0.88% and +1.12%), against +0.27% on any day.
Latest Reddit spikes, last few sessions
| Entry | Stock | Its median, 1 week | Confidence | Rank | Up | Events | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | ACN Accenture | 32 mentions vs 0.4/day the week before | — | — | |||
| Oct 2 | GOOG Alphabet Inc. (Class … | 205 mentions vs 55.6/day the week before | +0.73% | High | #14 of 92 | 56% | 87 |
| Oct 2 | HD Home Depot (The) | 28 mentions vs 1.3/day the week before | +1.57% | Medium | #26 of 92 | 62% | 8 |
| Oct 2 | NFLX Netflix | 28 mentions vs 7.6/day the week before | -0.15% | High | #72 of 92 | 50% | 42 |
| Oct 2 | NKE Nike, Inc. | 394 mentions vs 10.1/day the week before | +0.83% | Medium | #21 of 92 | 58% | 19 |
| Oct 2 | NOW ServiceNow | 24 mentions vs 7.6/day the week before | +1.96% | High | #5 of 92 | 64% | 25 |
| Oct 1 | DRAM | 43 mentions vs 7.7/day the week before | +6.53% | Low | #34 of 92 | 67% | 6 |
| Oct 1 | HOOD Robinhood Markets | 51 mentions vs 4.0/day the week before | +1.10% | High | #9 of 92 | 60% | 57 |
| Oct 1 | MU Micron Technology | 1185 mentions vs 120.0/day the week before | +0.74% | High | #32 of 92 | 53% | 49 |
| Sep 30 | FICO Fair Isaac | 24 mentions vs 0.0/day the week before | — | — |
Best after a Reddit spike
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VXUS meme | +1.64%+0.5 to +1.7 | Low | +1.64% | 100% | +0.61% | +1% · +3% | 4 |
| 2 | PM Philip Morris International | +1.92%+1.0 to +2.5 | High | +1.85% | 68% | +2.03% | -5% · +11% | 28 |
| 3 | NVDA Nvidia | +1.82%+0.8 to +2.7 | High | +1.23% | 60% | +0.84% | -16% · +16% | 107 |
| 4 | META Meta Platforms | +1.64%+0.3 to +2.1 | High | +0.67% | 62% | +0.06% | -26% · +20% | 74 |
| 5 | UAL United Airlines Holdings | +8.06%+3.1 to +8.6 | Low | +6.57% | 100% | +4.90% | +3% · +9% | 3 |
| 6 | APLD meme | +10.40%+7.4 to +11.4 | Medium | +11.63% | 88% | +8.34% | -4% · +34% | 17 |
| 7 | NOW ServiceNow | +1.96%+0.5 to +3.0 | High | +2.09% | 64% | +1.25% | -12% · +21% | 25 |
| 8 | QCOM Qualcomm | +2.46%+1.6 to +4.8 | Medium | +3.97% | 85% | +1.75% | -14% · +24% | 13 |
| 9 | AVGO Broadcom | +3.21%+0.7 to +4.9 | High | +3.36% | 66% | +2.69% | -19% · +40% | 32 |
| 10 | LLY Lilly (Eli) | +2.92%+0.2 to +3.9 | Medium | +1.26% | 68% | +0.81% | -12% · +11% | 19 |
| 11 | QQQ meme | +0.82%+0.1 to +1.1 | High | +0.18% | 57% | -0.05% | -10% · +7% | 91 |
| 12 | HOOD Robinhood Markets | +1.10%+0.3 to +2.0 | High | +0.84% | 60% | +0.67% | -28% · +24% | 57 |
| 13 | AMZN Amazon | +0.78%+0.3 to +1.2 | High | +0.42% | 59% | +0.12% | -20% · +17% | 90 |
| 14 | SNDK Sandisk | +5.33%-1.7 to +9.4 | Medium | +4.48% | 65% | +3.96% | -36% · +40% | 17 |
| 15 | BE Bloom Energy | +14.22%+3.8 to +19.4 | Medium | +11.58% | 74% | +13.83% | -20% · +46% | 19 |
| 16 | FDX FedEx | +2.18%-1.5 to +3.0 | Medium | +1.10% | 62% | +1.71% | -7% · +8% | 8 |
| 17 | GOOG Alphabet Inc. (Class … | +0.73%-0.1 to +1.2 | High | +0.59% | 56% | +0.25% | -9% · +11% | 87 |
| 18 | PLTR Palantir Technologies | +0.92%+0.1 to +2.0 | High | +1.44% | 58% | +0.86% | -20% · +50% | 79 |
| 19 | AAPL Apple Inc. | +0.78%-0.4 to +1.3 | High | +0.17% | 52% | -0.08% | -14% · +10% | 103 |
| 20 | RTX RTX Corporation | +1.19%-1.9 to +1.8 | Medium | +1.17% | 62% | +0.30% | -2% · +7% | 8 |
| 21 | BAC Bank of America | +1.75%-2.7 to +4.6 | Medium | +1.58% | 75% | -0.16% | -6% · +6% | 8 |
| 22 | IBM IBM | +4.77%-2.1 to +6.1 | Medium | +1.12% | 58% | +3.08% | -30% · +26% | 12 |
| 23 | CVNA Carvana | +2.28%-0.9 to +5.2 | High | +1.65% | 57% | +0.41% | -32% · +37% | 37 |
| 24 | NKE Nike, Inc. | +0.83%-0.8 to +1.4 | Medium | -0.02% | 58% | -1.14% | -7% · +6% | 19 |
| 25 | AEO meme | +3.47%-4.3 to +4.3 | Low | +1.76% | 75% | +1.98% | -4% · +4% | 4 |
Worst after a Reddit spike
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DLTR Dollar Tree | -0.85%-0.9 to -0.2 | Low | -0.65% | 0% | -2.17% | -1% · 0% | 3 |
| 2 | PFE Pfizer | -3.83%-5.5 to -2.5 | Low | -3.93% | 0% | -4.15% | -6% · -2% | 5 |
| 3 | PYPL PayPal | -1.38%-2.3 to -0.8 | High | -1.37% | 33% | -1.88% | -15% · +21% | 24 |
| 4 | RIVN meme | -3.94%-5.8 to -2.1 | High | -4.34% | 32% | -4.13% | -27% · +20% | 38 |
| 5 | TSLA Tesla, Inc. | -0.98%-2.0 to -0.2 | High | -0.44% | 43% | -1.57% | -19% · +27% | 109 |
| 6 | ONDS meme | -12.12%-14.9 to -7.0 | Medium | -6.62% | 21% | -11.71% | -29% · +44% | 14 |
| 7 | MCD McDonald's | -1.30%-2.2 to +0.1 | Low | -0.72% | 29% | -1.26% | -2% · +1% | 7 |
| 8 | SMCI Supermicro | -3.48%-6.3 to -1.5 | High | -0.14% | 38% | -3.95% | -24% · +65% | 48 |
| 9 | LULU Lululemon Athletica | -1.58%-3.1 to +1.0 | High | -1.06% | 41% | -0.95% | -25% · +13% | 27 |
| 10 | TGT Target Corporation | -3.21%-4.0 to +0.7 | Medium | -1.79% | 40% | -0.38% | -9% · +7% | 15 |
| 11 | GS Goldman Sachs | -1.00%-2.6 to +0.2 | Low | -1.14% | 33% | -0.40% | -3% · 0% | 6 |
| 12 | COST Costco | -0.26%-0.9 to -0.1 | High | -0.71% | 25% | +0.25% | -6% · +4% | 20 |
| 13 | IWM meme | -0.14%-0.7 to +0.5 | High | +0.07% | 50% | -0.16% | -4% · +5% | 24 |
| 14 | MSFT Microsoft | -0.06%-0.3 to +0.9 | High | +0.24% | 50% | -0.02% | -7% · +12% | 92 |
| 15 | WMT Walmart | -0.24%-0.6 to +0.9 | High | -0.10% | 46% | +0.96% | -11% · +9% | 24 |
| 16 | MRVL Marvell Technology | -5.31%-8.8 to -1.9 | Medium | 0.00% | 29% | -4.08% | -14% · +54% | 14 |
| 17 | COIN Coinbase | -2.31%-4.1 to +1.5 | High | -0.56% | 41% | -3.39% | -23% · +43% | 37 |
| 18 | ADBE Adobe Inc. | -1.31%-3.0 to -0.2 | Medium | -1.73% | 33% | -0.53% | -11% · +6% | 15 |
| 19 | UNH UnitedHealth Group | -0.57%-1.7 to +1.0 | High | -1.47% | 45% | -1.87% | -15% · +12% | 22 |
| 20 | XOM ExxonMobil | -1.60%-5.9 to -0.2 | Medium | -1.86% | 30% | -1.22% | -9% · +7% | 10 |
| 21 | WBD Warner Bros. Discovery | -0.51%-2.6 to +0.7 | Low | -1.01% | 43% | -0.62% | -6% · +2% | 7 |
| 22 | PANW Palo Alto Networks | -1.69%-3.5 to +1.5 | Medium | +0.45% | 44% | -1.85% | -7% · +21% | 18 |
| 23 | MS Morgan Stanley | -2.81%-7.7 to 0.0 | Low | -3.48% | 33% | +0.47% | -8% · 0% | 3 |
| 24 | OKLO meme | -6.51%-10.1 to -2.3 | High | -3.42% | 36% | -8.19% | -28% · +40% | 28 |
| 25 | NFLX Netflix | -0.15%-1.4 to +0.6 | High | +0.11% | 50% | -0.12% | -17% · +25% | 42 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next week from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.