Aftermath
After a Reddit spike, over the next quarter
Daily Reddit mentions at least 3x the prior week's average (20 or more); entry the next session. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +3.64% over the next quarter after a Reddit spike (half of them between -0.66% and +8.05%), against +2.15% on any day.
Latest Reddit spikes, last few sessions
| Entry | Stock | Its median, 1 quarter | Confidence | Rank | Up | Events | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | ACN Accenture | 32 mentions vs 0.4/day the week before | — | — | |||
| Oct 2 | GOOG Alphabet Inc. (Class … | 205 mentions vs 55.6/day the week before | +8.35% | Medium | #14 of 87 | 69% | 80 |
| Oct 2 | HD Home Depot (The) | 28 mentions vs 1.3/day the week before | -0.01% | Medium | #66 of 87 | 50% | 8 |
| Oct 2 | NFLX Netflix | 28 mentions vs 7.6/day the week before | +6.21% | Medium | #28 of 87 | 68% | 40 |
| Oct 2 | NKE Nike, Inc. | 394 mentions vs 10.1/day the week before | -7.05% | Medium | #86 of 87 | 33% | 18 |
| Oct 2 | NOW ServiceNow | 24 mentions vs 7.6/day the week before | -0.30% | Medium | #69 of 87 | 48% | 21 |
| Oct 1 | DRAM | 43 mentions vs 7.7/day the week before | — | — | |||
| Oct 1 | HOOD Robinhood Markets | 51 mentions vs 4.0/day the week before | +12.51% | Medium | #17 of 87 | 61% | 51 |
| Oct 1 | MU Micron Technology | 1185 mentions vs 120.0/day the week before | +21.23% | Medium | #2 of 87 | 70% | 43 |
| Sep 30 | FICO Fair Isaac | 24 mentions vs 0.0/day the week before | — | — |
Best after a Reddit spike
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NVDA Nvidia | +14.20%+5.5 to +21.6 | Medium | +18.20% | 69% | +7.11% | -35% · +95% | 101 |
| 2 | MU Micron Technology | +21.23%+1.4 to +29.1 | Medium | +30.35% | 70% | +16.74% | -38% · +169% | 43 |
| 3 | AMAT Applied Materials | +17.16%-1.9 to +23.2 | Medium | +14.61% | 75% | +10.86% | -10% · +38% | 8 |
| 4 | TSM meme | +10.09%+7.2 to +13.5 | Medium | +11.23% | 78% | +4.84% | -29% · +63% | 40 |
| 5 | PANW Palo Alto Networks | +11.33%+1.1 to +12.1 | Medium | +10.96% | 71% | +4.66% | -23% · +58% | 17 |
| 6 | CRWD CrowdStrike | +12.86%+6.4 to +17.5 | Medium | +15.84% | 73% | +9.43% | -36% · +89% | 22 |
| 7 | HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise | +14.36%+6.8 to +24.2 | Low | +9.37% | 75% | +7.61% | -15% · +24% | 4 |
| 8 | PLTR Palantir Technologies | +12.07%+5.1 to +22.3 | Medium | +21.25% | 71% | +9.94% | -32% · +157% | 75 |
| 9 | UAL United Airlines Holdings | +26.50%-4.8 to +37.7 | Low | +19.79% | 67% | +17.97% | -5% · +38% | 3 |
| 10 | ANET Arista Networks | +17.01%-10.6 to +18.1 | Low | +14.13% | 75% | +10.91% | -11% · +33% | 4 |
| 11 | JPM JPMorgan Chase | +8.26%+4.5 to +9.8 | Medium | +8.48% | 80% | +1.98% | -8% · +28% | 30 |
| 12 | COIN Coinbase | +15.14%-7.3 to +29.0 | Medium | +15.64% | 57% | +8.81% | -48% · +91% | 37 |
| 13 | BE Bloom Energy | +33.02%+10.4 to +74.8 | Low | +38.19% | 75% | +34.09% | -25% · +100% | 16 |
| 14 | VRT Vertiv | +36.90%-19.1 to +41.7 | Low | +19.85% | 67% | +27.85% | -19% · +42% | 3 |
| 15 | GOOG Alphabet Inc. (Class … | +8.35%+2.8 to +16.6 | Medium | +9.55% | 69% | +2.35% | -21% · +52% | 80 |
| 16 | AVGO Broadcom | +9.02%+2.2 to +12.1 | Medium | +11.90% | 68% | +4.85% | -23% · +86% | 25 |
| 17 | IBKR Interactive Brokers | +7.67%+3.0 to +10.2 | Low | +6.94% | 100% | +0.63% | +3% · +10% | 3 |
| 18 | HOOD Robinhood Markets | +12.51%-2.2 to +29.0 | Medium | +18.51% | 61% | +10.23% | -49% · +123% | 51 |
| 19 | WDC Western Digital | +29.17%+22.5 to +61.5 | Low | +29.40% | 80% | +24.67% | -39% · +73% | 5 |
| 20 | RKLB meme | +18.71%+4.0 to +44.4 | Medium | +40.89% | 65% | +16.67% | -45% · +231% | 46 |
| 21 | APP AppLovin | +27.51%-23.1 to +32.2 | Low | +11.93% | 70% | +18.76% | -36% · +46% | 10 |
| 22 | CAT Caterpillar Inc. | +18.76%-14.1 to +25.7 | Low | +10.68% | 60% | +16.16% | -14% · +36% | 5 |
| 23 | SNDK Sandisk | +85.21%-1.4 to +106.0 | Low | +68.82% | 69% | +82.11% | -22% · +211% | 13 |
| 24 | XOM ExxonMobil | +7.66%+5.6 to +13.8 | Low | +7.73% | 70% | +2.69% | -8% · +28% | 10 |
| 25 | SBUX Starbucks | +7.08%+1.7 to +12.2 | Medium | +7.29% | 80% | +2.86% | -26% · +32% | 15 |
Worst after a Reddit spike
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MRNA Moderna | -22.03%-28.2 to -16.4 | Low | -22.19% | 0% | -19.05% | -28% · -16% | 3 |
| 2 | BB meme | -12.32%-15.6 to -7.2 | Medium | -5.12% | 28% | -11.60% | -36% · +82% | 29 |
| 3 | NKE Nike, Inc. | -7.05%-9.9 to -3.3 | Medium | -1.23% | 33% | -10.91% | -33% · +39% | 18 |
| 4 | OPEN meme | -19.71%-27.4 to -9.4 | Medium | +41.60% | 27% | -24.03% | -63% · +599% | 26 |
| 5 | TTD meme | -11.69%-15.4 to -5.4 | Medium | -9.12% | 33% | -18.15% | -35% · +14% | 9 |
| 6 | PFE Pfizer | -6.88%-9.0 to -6.8 | Low | -5.86% | 20% | -12.76% | -15% · +8% | 5 |
| 7 | ADBE Adobe Inc. | -8.16%-11.6 to -0.7 | Medium | -6.15% | 29% | -12.97% | -28% · +15% | 14 |
| 8 | GME meme | -5.58%-12.4 to +0.6 | Medium | +2.00% | 42% | -10.93% | -55% · +170% | 62 |
| 9 | WBD Warner Bros. Discovery | -5.90%-18.0 to -4.4 | Low | -8.43% | 14% | -13.11% | -29% · +11% | 7 |
| 10 | GS Goldman Sachs | -2.82%-3.0 to +4.9 | Low | +0.29% | 33% | -0.66% | -3% · +8% | 6 |
| 11 | RIVN meme | -15.27%-25.5 to -1.9 | Medium | -7.18% | 35% | -16.97% | -51% · +61% | 37 |
| 12 | PYPL PayPal | -4.92%-13.3 to -0.9 | Medium | -3.94% | 38% | -6.94% | -38% · +36% | 24 |
| 13 | DIS Walt Disney Company … | -2.43%-8.7 to +1.6 | Medium | -1.28% | 39% | -3.45% | -26% · +25% | 18 |
| 14 | ABNB Airbnb | -7.21%-17.6 to +2.1 | Medium | -5.98% | 40% | -10.40% | -24% · +18% | 10 |
| 15 | VZ Verizon | -5.32%-19.7 to -1.1 | Low | -7.08% | 25% | +0.71% | -20% · +2% | 4 |
| 16 | LULU Lululemon Athletica | -4.87%-12.1 to +7.2 | Medium | -3.35% | 46% | -10.05% | -49% · +28% | 26 |
| 17 | MRVL Marvell Technology | -9.75%-14.0 to +5.2 | Medium | +14.47% | 45% | -9.15% | -44% · +194% | 11 |
| 18 | IREN meme | -6.38%-29.3 to -4.9 | Low | +5.14% | 40% | -8.31% | -37% · +81% | 10 |
| 19 | SMCI Supermicro | -4.76%-18.1 to +1.1 | Medium | -0.12% | 43% | -10.31% | -70% · +235% | 46 |
| 20 | ORCL Oracle Corporation | -8.16%-21.9 to +4.8 | Medium | -6.57% | 37% | -9.49% | -37% · +47% | 27 |
| 21 | TSLA Tesla, Inc. | -0.35%-3.7 to +8.4 | Medium | +4.53% | 49% | -3.93% | -54% · +82% | 104 |
| 22 | ISRG Intuitive Surgical | -0.58%-11.9 to +0.1 | Low | -4.11% | 33% | -4.09% | -12% · 0% | 3 |
| 23 | TLT meme | +1.60%+0.8 to +3.2 | Medium | +1.86% | 68% | -6.62% | -13% · +15% | 19 |
| 24 | IOVA meme | -34.65%-35.2 to +14.1 | Low | -18.58% | 33% | -39.92% | -35% · +14% | 3 |
| 25 | SCHW Charles Schwab Corporation | -8.77%-18.4 to +13.6 | Low | -4.53% | 33% | -14.51% | -18% · +14% | 3 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next quarter from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.