Aftermath
After a Reddit spike, over the next month
Daily Reddit mentions at least 3x the prior week's average (20 or more); entry the next session. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +1.10% over the next month after a Reddit spike (half of them between -1.31% and +3.04%), against +0.86% on any day.
Latest Reddit spikes, last few sessions
| Entry | Stock | Its median, 1 month | Confidence | Rank | Up | Events | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | ACN Accenture | 32 mentions vs 0.4/day the week before | — | — | |||
| Oct 2 | GOOG Alphabet Inc. (Class … | 205 mentions vs 55.6/day the week before | +2.25% | High | #15 of 91 | 61% | 85 |
| Oct 2 | HD Home Depot (The) | 28 mentions vs 1.3/day the week before | +2.06% | Medium | #40 of 91 | 62% | 8 |
| Oct 2 | NFLX Netflix | 28 mentions vs 7.6/day the week before | +3.18% | High | #11 of 91 | 57% | 42 |
| Oct 2 | NKE Nike, Inc. | 394 mentions vs 10.1/day the week before | -0.48% | Medium | #70 of 91 | 47% | 19 |
| Oct 2 | NOW ServiceNow | 24 mentions vs 7.6/day the week before | +4.24% | Medium | #9 of 91 | 60% | 25 |
| Oct 1 | DRAM | 43 mentions vs 7.7/day the week before | +16.48% | Low | #37 of 91 | 67% | 6 |
| Oct 1 | HOOD Robinhood Markets | 51 mentions vs 4.0/day the week before | +6.77% | High | #7 of 91 | 62% | 55 |
| Oct 1 | MU Micron Technology | 1185 mentions vs 120.0/day the week before | +4.05% | High | #19 of 91 | 62% | 47 |
| Sep 30 | FICO Fair Isaac | 24 mentions vs 0.0/day the week before | — | — |
Best after a Reddit spike
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UAL United Airlines Holdings | +12.39%+10.6 to +16.3 | Low | +13.11% | 100% | +3.63% | +11% · +16% | 3 |
| 2 | PM Philip Morris International | +5.27%+3.0 to +7.4 | High | +4.68% | 79% | +3.40% | -6% · +18% | 28 |
| 3 | SBUX Starbucks | +4.54%+0.7 to +5.8 | Medium | +5.85% | 80% | +2.25% | -8% · +26% | 15 |
| 4 | IWM meme | +2.14%+1.6 to +2.3 | Medium | +1.89% | 75% | -0.84% | -8% · +10% | 24 |
| 5 | PLTR Palantir Technologies | +4.26%+2.0 to +6.7 | High | +5.54% | 65% | +2.05% | -38% · +89% | 77 |
| 6 | VXUS meme | +7.09%-0.1 to +7.6 | Low | +4.85% | 67% | -0.86% | 0% · +8% | 3 |
| 7 | NVDA Nvidia | +3.38%+0.5 to +4.3 | High | +5.72% | 62% | +0.79% | -27% · +49% | 105 |
| 8 | AMZN Amazon | +2.89%+0.3 to +4.4 | High | +1.35% | 62% | +0.32% | -30% · +27% | 89 |
| 9 | QQQ meme | +1.99%+1.1 to +2.6 | High | +1.39% | 69% | +0.28% | -15% · +18% | 89 |
| 10 | HOOD Robinhood Markets | +6.77%+0.7 to +8.0 | High | +7.04% | 62% | +4.86% | -35% · +42% | 55 |
| 11 | BAC Bank of America | +4.70%-0.1 to +7.1 | Low | +3.69% | 62% | -0.42% | -7% · +14% | 8 |
| 12 | NOW ServiceNow | +4.24%-0.1 to +5.9 | Medium | +2.74% | 60% | +1.67% | -18% · +36% | 25 |
| 13 | RKLB meme | +11.25%+4.8 to +15.1 | High | +14.68% | 67% | +9.52% | -35% · +115% | 51 |
| 14 | SPY meme | +1.69%+0.9 to +2.6 | High | +1.16% | 67% | 0.00% | -10% · +10% | 103 |
| 15 | CRWD CrowdStrike | +2.81%+0.5 to +4.0 | High | +3.37% | 65% | +1.94% | -13% · +23% | 23 |
| 16 | NFLX Netflix | +3.18%-2.3 to +5.2 | High | +2.26% | 57% | +1.77% | -19% · +29% | 42 |
| 17 | QCOM Qualcomm | +3.41%+1.7 to +6.5 | Medium | +5.47% | 75% | +1.48% | -22% · +62% | 12 |
| 18 | PANW Palo Alto Networks | +10.04%-2.3 to +12.0 | Medium | +6.11% | 61% | +6.67% | -12% · +27% | 18 |
| 19 | LLY Lilly (Eli) | +3.81%-1.1 to +9.1 | Medium | +4.85% | 63% | +3.04% | -15% · +21% | 19 |
| 20 | GOOG Alphabet Inc. (Class … | +2.25%+0.2 to +5.5 | High | +2.22% | 61% | +0.65% | -16% · +28% | 85 |
| 21 | AAPL Apple Inc. | +1.72%0.0 to +3.5 | High | +1.42% | 58% | +0.60% | -24% · +20% | 103 |
| 22 | SNDK Sandisk | +22.20%+0.1 to +28.6 | Medium | +21.71% | 73% | +14.54% | -18% · +82% | 15 |
| 23 | UPS United Parcel Service | +2.33%-0.1 to +3.1 | Medium | +0.36% | 70% | -2.20% | -9% · +7% | 10 |
| 24 | MU Micron Technology | +4.05%-1.4 to +10.0 | High | +8.25% | 62% | +2.53% | -34% · +80% | 47 |
| 25 | META Meta Platforms | +2.46%-2.4 to +5.6 | High | +2.06% | 58% | +0.84% | -31% · +31% | 72 |
Worst after a Reddit spike
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SCHW Charles Schwab Corporation | -9.15%-9.2 to -8.0 | Low | -8.80% | 0% | -8.81% | -9% · -8% | 3 |
| 2 | WDAY Workday, Inc. | -7.84%-7.9 to -7.3 | Low | -7.66% | 0% | -6.43% | -8% · -7% | 3 |
| 3 | PFE Pfizer | -8.05%-8.8 to -6.0 | Low | -6.72% | 0% | -8.08% | -11% · 0% | 5 |
| 4 | ADBE Adobe Inc. | -5.26%-7.0 to -3.7 | Medium | -4.55% | 29% | -4.61% | -18% · +7% | 14 |
| 5 | MS Morgan Stanley | -2.81%-6.2 to -0.7 | Low | -3.26% | 0% | -1.47% | -6% · -1% | 3 |
| 6 | BTC meme | -1.15%-2.5 to +1.0 | High | +0.74% | 48% | -0.93% | -34% · +36% | 71 |
| 7 | PYPL PayPal | -6.03%-9.9 to -0.8 | High | -5.56% | 33% | -5.84% | -30% · +15% | 24 |
| 8 | DIS Walt Disney Company … | -1.23%-3.2 to +0.9 | Medium | -1.84% | 44% | -3.49% | -16% · +11% | 18 |
| 9 | TGT Target Corporation | -4.43%-6.6 to -1.0 | Medium | -3.79% | 33% | -3.17% | -15% · +8% | 15 |
| 10 | ES Eversource Energy | -2.03%-4.7 to +1.3 | Low | -1.82% | 33% | -4.80% | -5% · +1% | 3 |
| 11 | VZ Verizon | -1.00%-2.9 to +0.8 | Low | -0.45% | 50% | +3.80% | -3% · +3% | 4 |
| 12 | RIVN meme | -4.09%-9.2 to -1.7 | High | -4.79% | 34% | -5.82% | -42% · +33% | 38 |
| 13 | BA Boeing | -2.20%-5.2 to +0.6 | Medium | -0.34% | 38% | -4.27% | -17% · +32% | 21 |
| 14 | WBD Warner Bros. Discovery | -3.65%-7.8 to -1.7 | Low | -2.22% | 29% | -0.17% | -13% · +13% | 7 |
| 15 | TSLA Tesla, Inc. | -1.68%-5.3 to +1.6 | High | +0.55% | 47% | -2.68% | -42% · +68% | 107 |
| 16 | CRM Salesforce | -1.60%-4.5 to +1.7 | Medium | -0.58% | 39% | -2.97% | -10% · +18% | 18 |
| 17 | GME meme | -2.31%-7.0 to -0.3 | High | +5.04% | 41% | -4.42% | -45% · +281% | 63 |
| 18 | GM General Motors | -3.04%-8.7 to -2.3 | Medium | -2.06% | 29% | -5.31% | -14% · +18% | 17 |
| 19 | BB meme | -5.55%-11.0 to -1.6 | High | -2.36% | 38% | -4.82% | -33% · +42% | 29 |
| 20 | TLT meme | +0.46%-0.3 to +2.6 | Medium | +0.89% | 55% | -1.62% | -6% · +11% | 20 |
| 21 | INTU Intuit | -15.96%-20.3 to +0.8 | Low | -11.81% | 33% | -14.99% | -20% · +1% | 3 |
| 22 | CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill | -0.52%-4.6 to +1.3 | Medium | -1.04% | 43% | +1.58% | -24% · +10% | 14 |
| 23 | CRWV meme | -7.15%-13.8 to -2.2 | Medium | +6.93% | 27% | -7.84% | -29% · +141% | 15 |
| 24 | WMT Walmart | -0.05%-2.1 to +3.5 | High | +0.82% | 50% | +0.58% | -11% · +11% | 24 |
| 25 | INTC Intel | +0.41%-1.9 to +1.8 | High | +1.61% | 51% | -2.39% | -45% · +86% | 72 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next month from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.