Aftermath
After a Reddit spike, over the next day
Daily Reddit mentions at least 3x the prior week's average (20 or more); entry the next session. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +0.12% over the next day after a Reddit spike (half of them between -0.36% and +0.66%), against +0.06% on any day.
Latest Reddit spikes, last few sessions
| Entry | Stock | Its median, 1 day | Confidence | Rank | Up | Events | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | ACN Accenture | 32 mentions vs 0.4/day the week before | — | — | |||
| Oct 2 | GOOG Alphabet Inc. (Class … | 205 mentions vs 55.6/day the week before | -0.22% | High | #91 of 92 | 46% | 87 |
| Oct 2 | HD Home Depot (The) | 28 mentions vs 1.3/day the week before | -0.11% | Medium | #55 of 92 | 38% | 8 |
| Oct 2 | NFLX Netflix | 28 mentions vs 7.6/day the week before | -0.17% | High | #80 of 92 | 48% | 42 |
| Oct 2 | NKE Nike, Inc. | 394 mentions vs 10.1/day the week before | +0.50% | Medium | #11 of 92 | 63% | 19 |
| Oct 2 | NOW ServiceNow | 24 mentions vs 7.6/day the week before | -0.60% | High | #92 of 92 | 40% | 25 |
| Oct 1 | DRAM | 43 mentions vs 7.7/day the week before | -4.38% | Low | #54 of 92 | 29% | 7 |
| Oct 1 | HOOD Robinhood Markets | 51 mentions vs 4.0/day the week before | -0.70% | High | #74 of 92 | 47% | 58 |
| Oct 1 | MU Micron Technology | 1185 mentions vs 120.0/day the week before | +1.17% | High | #6 of 92 | 62% | 50 |
| Sep 30 | FICO Fair Isaac | 24 mentions vs 0.0/day the week before | — | — |
Best after a Reddit spike
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GS Goldman Sachs | +1.45%+0.5 to +1.8 | Low | +1.31% | 100% | +0.44% | 0% · +2% | 6 |
| 2 | WMT Walmart | +0.66%+0.1 to +1.0 | High | +0.40% | 67% | +0.42% | -3% · +4% | 24 |
| 3 | VXUS meme | +1.02%+0.4 to +1.5 | Low | +1.00% | 100% | 0.00% | 0% · +1% | 4 |
| 4 | BE Bloom Energy | +4.21%+3.6 to +6.3 | Medium | +3.51% | 79% | +3.60% | -13% · +26% | 19 |
| 5 | IBKR Interactive Brokers | +0.75%+0.6 to +1.7 | Low | +1.02% | 100% | +0.15% | +1% · +2% | 3 |
| 6 | SBUX Starbucks | +0.66%+0.4 to +1.0 | Medium | +0.32% | 67% | -0.15% | -5% · +3% | 15 |
| 7 | MU Micron Technology | +1.17%+0.4 to +2.2 | High | +1.69% | 62% | +0.69% | -7% · +19% | 50 |
| 8 | PM Philip Morris International | +0.48%-0.4 to +0.6 | High | +0.39% | 61% | +0.09% | -1% · +3% | 28 |
| 9 | BA Boeing | +0.46%-0.2 to +0.7 | High | +0.40% | 62% | +0.21% | -3% · +3% | 21 |
| 10 | CVNA Carvana | +1.15%-0.6 to +1.8 | High | +0.25% | 59% | +1.12% | -16% · +11% | 37 |
| 11 | AMZN Amazon | +0.34%+0.2 to +0.7 | High | +0.34% | 64% | +0.26% | -14% · +5% | 90 |
| 12 | AEO meme | +3.73%+0.1 to +4.1 | Low | +3.55% | 100% | +3.09% | 0% · +7% | 4 |
| 13 | NKE Nike, Inc. | +0.50%0.0 to +1.2 | Medium | +0.55% | 63% | +0.54% | -3% · +4% | 19 |
| 14 | AMAT Applied Materials | +1.19%+1.1 to +1.7 | Medium | +0.74% | 78% | +1.03% | -5% · +6% | 9 |
| 15 | ARM meme | +0.82%-0.3 to +1.5 | High | +1.37% | 55% | +0.02% | -10% · +16% | 22 |
| 16 | GM General Motors | +1.17%-0.9 to +1.4 | Medium | +0.05% | 56% | +0.24% | -5% · +3% | 18 |
| 17 | CRM Salesforce | +1.28%0.0 to +2.8 | Medium | +2.06% | 67% | +0.76% | -2% · +8% | 18 |
| 18 | PANW Palo Alto Networks | +0.81%-0.8 to +1.6 | Medium | +0.50% | 56% | +0.09% | -3% · +4% | 18 |
| 19 | LULU Lululemon Athletica | +0.43%+0.1 to +1.3 | High | -0.08% | 70% | +0.50% | -20% · +4% | 27 |
| 20 | LMT Lockheed Martin | +1.00%+1.0 to +2.6 | Low | +1.94% | 100% | +1.83% | 0% · +5% | 5 |
| 21 | LLY Lilly (Eli) | +0.38%-0.1 to +0.9 | Medium | +0.17% | 58% | -0.22% | -4% · +4% | 19 |
| 22 | ISRG Intuitive Surgical | +4.14%-1.8 to +4.6 | Low | +2.31% | 67% | +2.04% | -2% · +5% | 3 |
| 23 | CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill | +0.75%-0.3 to +1.6 | Medium | +0.48% | 64% | +0.51% | -5% · +4% | 14 |
| 24 | ABNB Airbnb | +1.41%-0.5 to +2.1 | Medium | +1.44% | 70% | +1.12% | -8% · +13% | 10 |
| 25 | QCOM Qualcomm | +0.41%-0.8 to +0.8 | Medium | -0.06% | 62% | +0.21% | -8% · +4% | 13 |
Worst after a Reddit spike
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TSM meme | -0.86%-1.5 to -0.6 | High | -0.57% | 27% | -0.71% | -8% · +12% | 41 |
| 2 | NOW ServiceNow | -0.60%-0.8 to 0.0 | High | -0.27% | 40% | -0.56% | -5% · +6% | 25 |
| 3 | GOOG Alphabet Inc. (Class … | -0.22%-0.4 to +0.2 | High | -0.06% | 46% | -0.24% | -7% · +10% | 87 |
| 4 | IWM meme | -0.22%-0.8 to 0.0 | High | -0.09% | 42% | -0.21% | -4% · +3% | 24 |
| 5 | CAT Caterpillar Inc. | -1.17%-1.6 to -1.0 | Low | -0.66% | 33% | -1.11% | -2% · +1% | 6 |
| 6 | ES Eversource Energy | -0.72%-0.8 to +0.5 | Low | -0.34% | 33% | -0.09% | -1% · +1% | 3 |
| 7 | SPY meme | +0.04%0.0 to +0.2 | High | +0.02% | 51% | 0.00% | -4% · +2% | 105 |
| 8 | PYPL PayPal | -0.65%-1.6 to -0.1 | High | -1.21% | 38% | -0.94% | -12% · +6% | 24 |
| 9 | ORCL Oracle Corporation | -0.57%-1.4 to +0.2 | High | -0.02% | 42% | -0.61% | -6% · +10% | 31 |
| 10 | SMCI Supermicro | -0.96%-1.8 to -0.6 | High | -0.60% | 40% | -1.11% | -16% · +19% | 48 |
| 11 | PLTR Palantir Technologies | -0.60%-1.5 to -0.1 | High | -0.46% | 42% | -0.84% | -12% · +31% | 79 |
| 12 | DELL Dell Technologies | -2.26%-3.4 to -1.0 | Medium | -3.01% | 27% | -2.07% | -18% · +5% | 11 |
| 13 | FDX FedEx | -0.33%-0.7 to +0.5 | Medium | +0.07% | 38% | -0.45% | -2% · +3% | 8 |
| 14 | TLT meme | -0.04%-0.4 to +0.2 | High | -0.18% | 43% | -0.76% | -2% · +2% | 21 |
| 15 | MSFT Microsoft | +0.03%-0.2 to +0.2 | High | +0.04% | 52% | +0.17% | -4% · +4% | 92 |
| 16 | KO Coca-Cola Company (The) | -0.21%-0.5 to +0.3 | Low | -0.26% | 43% | -0.68% | -2% · +1% | 7 |
| 17 | NFLX Netflix | -0.17%-0.7 to +0.6 | High | +0.04% | 48% | -0.03% | -9% · +6% | 42 |
| 18 | TGT Target Corporation | -0.50%-1.3 to -0.1 | Medium | -0.73% | 33% | -0.64% | -6% · +4% | 15 |
| 19 | XOM ExxonMobil | -0.47%-1.1 to 0.0 | Medium | -0.31% | 40% | +0.22% | -3% · +3% | 10 |
| 20 | TSLA Tesla, Inc. | -0.02%-0.3 to +0.2 | High | -0.17% | 49% | -0.04% | -9% · +11% | 109 |
| 21 | ANET Arista Networks | -2.28%-2.5 to 0.0 | Low | -1.93% | 40% | -0.87% | -5% · 0% | 5 |
| 22 | MCD McDonald's | -0.22%-0.4 to +1.0 | Low | +0.05% | 43% | -0.76% | -1% · +2% | 7 |
| 23 | QQQ meme | +0.10%-0.1 to +0.2 | High | -0.10% | 53% | +0.03% | -5% · +3% | 91 |
| 24 | HOOD Robinhood Markets | -0.70%-1.7 to +0.6 | High | -1.01% | 47% | -0.68% | -17% · +7% | 58 |
| 25 | PFE Pfizer | -0.31%-0.5 to +0.4 | Low | -0.39% | 40% | -0.10% | -2% · +1% | 5 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next day from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.