SOFI
Up on record loan originations, deposits, growth
- SOFI +4.78% on the last session vs SPY +0.08%: +4.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- News: 247wallst.com reports SoFi posted record loan originations, deposits, and member growth. (247wallst.com)
- More than its group: its brokers & fintech peers +2.1% (+2.0 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, big gain (+4.8% today so far, past its big-gain line of +4.4%): After its 62 big gains in the past 5 years, SOFI was higher a month later 33 times out of 62; half the outcomes fell between -9.9% and +11.4%. History, not a forecast.
- 11 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 74% positive over the week.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: TD Cowen maintained Hold, lowered target $18.00 → $17.50.
- 2 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,254 | — | -0.2%606/1253 up | 0.0%625/1249 up | -1.9%568/1233 up | -4.2%545/1191 up |
| Big drop Oct 14 (-4.0% or worse) | 54 | — | 0.0%26/53 up | +0.9%28/53 up | +2.4%29/53 up | -0.8%25/51 up |
| Big gain now (+4.4% or better) | 62 | — | +0.3%32/62 up | +0.6%32/62 up | +1.9%33/62 up | +14.0%35/59 up |
| Earnings beat | 14 | +0.8%8/14 up | -0.2%7/14 up | -4.0%5/14 up | +0.1%7/14 up | +12.8%7/13 up |
| Earnings miss | 2 | +16.9%2/2 up | -5.3%0/2 up | -8.0%0/2 up | -23.1%0/2 up | +2.2%1/2 up |
| 52-week high | 9 | — | +1.7%5/9 up | +2.1%5/9 up | +2.2%5/9 up | -1.7%4/9 up |
| 52-week low Oct 14 | 3 | — | +0.2%1/2 up | +2.7%2/2 up | +10.0%1/2 up | +31.1%2/2 up |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 9 | — | +1.2%6/9 up | +3.8%5/9 up | +4.1%6/9 up | +29.5%7/9 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 9 | — | -1.4%2/9 up | -2.2%3/9 up | +0.6%5/9 up | +33.3%6/9 up |
| RSI oversold Oct 14 | 7 | — | +2.0%5/6 up | +1.1%3/6 up | -10.2%2/6 up | +1.1%4/6 up |
| RSI overbought | 14 | — | -0.3%5/14 up | -1.0%7/14 up | +3.0%7/14 up | +16.0%8/14 up |
| Volume spike | 15 | — | -1.6%6/15 up | 0.0%7/15 up | +0.6%8/15 up | +6.1%9/15 up |
| Theme selloff Oct 14 hindsight | 47 | — | -0.6%20/46 up | +1.3%25/46 up | -1.2%20/44 up | +3.7%24/43 up |
| Theme rally hindsight | 53 | — | -0.4%23/53 up | +1.0%32/53 up | -1.7%24/53 up | -2.5%23/50 up |
| Mention spike (Trendy) | 46 | — | -1.2%17/46 up | -2.9%16/46 up | -2.8%19/46 up | -2.8%21/44 up |
| Analyst upgrade | 1 | — | -6.2%0/1 up | -1.0%0/1 up | -8.9%0/1 up | -21.4%0/1 up |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | 5 | — | +0.5%3/5 up | -3.4%0/5 up | -2.4%1/5 up | -4.0%2/5 up |
| Insider unplanned sale | 2 | — | -1.4%1/2 up | -2.0%1/2 up | -10.1%0/2 up | -12.8%0/2 up |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is SOFI's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session or today, from the live quote.
Earnings miss
EPS below the consensus; entry at the close of the session that first traded on it.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reaction day | 2 | +16.86% | 2 of 2 | +16.30% |
+5%
+28%
|
|
| 1 day | 2 | -5.32% | 0 of 2 | -4.03% |
-11%
0%
|
|
| 1 week | 2 | -8.05% | 0 of 2 | -8.39% |
-11%
-5%
|
|
| 1 month | 2 | -23.10% | 0 of 2 | -23.90% |
-29%
-17%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 2 | +2.18% | 1 of 2 | +1.15% |
-30%
+35%
|
Range of outcomes: all of SOFI's earnings misses in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Earnings miss by trend
| When it happened | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 2 | +16.9%2 events vs -0.2% | -5.3%2 events vs -0.2% | -8.0%2 events vs +0.2% | -23.1%2 events vs +1.1% | +2.2%2 events vs +9.4% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 2 | +28.4%1 events vs -0.1% | -5.3%2 events vs -0.1% | -8.0%2 events vs +0.5% | -23.1%2 events vs +0.9% | +2.2%2 events vs -3.5% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 1 | +5.3%1 events vs -0.2% | — | — | — | — |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 2 | +16.9%2 events vs 0.0% | -5.3%2 events vs 0.0% | -8.0%2 events vs +0.2% | -23.1%2 events vs -1.9% | +2.2%2 events vs -2.2% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | — | — | — | — | — | — |
The same event split by where SOFI stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Latest earnings misses
| Event | Entry | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2022 | Nov 1 @ $5.73 | EPS −$0.01 vs consensus · +5.3% reaction | +5.3% | -10.6% | -11.0% | -17.3% | +34.7% |
| Aug 2, 2022 | Aug 3 @ $8.23 | EPS −$0.01 (−10.0%) vs consensus · +28.4% reaction | +28.4% | 0.0% | -5.1% | -28.9% | -30.4% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.