SOFI
Up on record loan originations, deposits, growth
- SOFI +2.53% on the last session vs SPY +0.00%: +2.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- News: 247wallst.com reports SoFi posted record loan originations, deposits, and member growth. (247wallst.com)
- Not a group move: its brokers & fintech peers +0.6% (+0.6 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 14): After its 53 big drops in the past 5 years, SOFI was higher a month later 29 times out of 53; half the outcomes fell between -8.4% and +15.4%. History, not a forecast.
- 15 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 74% positive over the week.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: TD Cowen maintained Hold, lowered target $18.00 → $17.50.
- 2 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,254 | — | -0.2%606/1253 up | 0.0%625/1249 up | -1.9%568/1233 up | -4.2%545/1191 up |
| Big drop Oct 14 (-4.0% or worse) | 54 | — | 0.0%26/53 up | +0.9%28/53 up | +2.4%29/53 up | -0.8%25/51 up |
| Big gain (+4.4% or better) | 62 | — | +0.3%32/62 up | +0.6%32/62 up | +1.9%33/62 up | +14.0%35/59 up |
| Earnings beat | 14 | +0.8%8/14 up | -0.2%7/14 up | -4.0%5/14 up | +0.1%7/14 up | +12.8%7/13 up |
| Earnings miss | 2 | +16.9%2/2 up | -5.3%0/2 up | -8.0%0/2 up | -23.1%0/2 up | +2.2%1/2 up |
| 52-week high | 9 | — | +1.7%5/9 up | +2.1%5/9 up | +2.2%5/9 up | -1.7%4/9 up |
| 52-week low Oct 14 | 3 | — | +0.2%1/2 up | +2.7%2/2 up | +10.0%1/2 up | +31.1%2/2 up |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 9 | — | +1.2%6/9 up | +3.8%5/9 up | +4.1%6/9 up | +29.5%7/9 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 9 | — | -1.4%2/9 up | -2.2%3/9 up | +0.6%5/9 up | +33.3%6/9 up |
| RSI oversold Oct 14 | 7 | — | +2.0%5/6 up | +1.1%3/6 up | -10.2%2/6 up | +1.1%4/6 up |
| RSI overbought | 14 | — | -0.3%5/14 up | -1.0%7/14 up | +3.0%7/14 up | +16.0%8/14 up |
| Volume spike | 15 | — | -1.6%6/15 up | 0.0%7/15 up | +0.6%8/15 up | +6.1%9/15 up |
| Theme selloff Oct 14 hindsight | 47 | — | -0.6%20/46 up | +1.3%25/46 up | -1.2%20/44 up | +3.7%24/43 up |
| Theme rally hindsight | 53 | — | -0.4%23/53 up | +1.0%32/53 up | -1.7%24/53 up | -2.5%23/50 up |
| Mention spike (Trendy) | 46 | — | -1.2%17/46 up | -2.9%16/46 up | -2.8%19/46 up | -2.8%21/44 up |
| Analyst upgrade | 1 | — | -6.2%0/1 up | -1.0%0/1 up | -8.9%0/1 up | -21.4%0/1 up |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | 5 | — | +0.5%3/5 up | -3.4%0/5 up | -2.4%1/5 up | -4.0%2/5 up |
| Insider unplanned sale | 2 | — | -1.4%1/2 up | -2.0%1/2 up | -10.1%0/2 up | -12.8%0/2 up |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is SOFI's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Big gain (+4.4% or better)
A daily rise among the stock's own best 10% of the prior 2 years.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 62 | +0.32% | 32 of 62 | +0.29% |
-10%
+11%
|
|
| 1 week | 62 | +0.55% | 32 of 62 | +0.40% |
-21%
+21%
|
|
| 1 month | 62 ≈39 indep. | +1.89% | 33 of 62 | +1.34% |
-26%
+61%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 59 ≈15 indep. | +14.04% | 35 of 59 | +1.71% |
-41%
+101%
|
Range of outcomes: all of SOFI's big gains in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Big gain by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 39 | +0.5%39 events vs +0.1% | -1.0%39 events vs +0.5% | +0.3%39 events vs -1.6% | -1.7%39 events vs -4.9% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 23 | -0.2%23 events vs -0.2% | +1.1%23 events vs +0.2% | +6.3%23 events vs +1.1% | +18.3%20 events vs +9.4% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 35 | +1.0%35 events vs -0.1% | -1.0%35 events vs +0.5% | +4.4%35 events vs +0.9% | -1.7%33 events vs -3.5% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 27 | -0.7%27 events vs -0.2% | +0.7%27 events vs 0.0% | +1.4%27 events vs -2.7% | +15.8%26 events vs -1.7% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 45 | +0.6%45 events vs 0.0% | +1.1%45 events vs +0.2% | 0.0%45 events vs -1.9% | +10.9%44 events vs -2.2% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 17 | -0.2%17 events vs -0.3% | 0.0%17 events vs 0.0% | +2.4%17 events vs -1.5% | +16.1%15 events vs -5.2% |
The same event split by where SOFI stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Latest big gains
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2, 2026 | Sep 2 @ $17.84 | +4.6% on the day (line +4.5%) | +3.8% | -3.5% | -11.6% | … |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Aug 21 @ $18.91 | +5.5% on the day (line +4.6%) | -3.5% | -4.5% | -9.3% | … |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Jul 30 @ $16.47 | +8.0% on the day (line +4.5%) | -1.0% | +9.9% | +9.7% | … |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Jul 9 @ $18.62 | +5.0% on the day (line +4.6%) | +0.9% | -7.0% | -1.3% | -15.9% |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Jun 11 @ $16.67 | +5.0% on the day (line +4.5%) | -0.5% | +7.4% | +11.3% | +3.9% |
| May 28, 2026 | May 28 @ $16.97 | +5.0% on the day (line +4.4%) | +7.4% | +1.1% | +7.2% | +13.0% |
| May 14, 2026 | May 14 @ $16.02 | +4.6% on the day (line +4.4%) | -2.6% | -2.3% | +6.9% | +14.2% |
| Apr 13, 2026 | Apr 13 @ $17.05 | +5.1% on the day (line +4.4%) | +5.0% | +14.4% | -6.7% | +8.8% |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Mar 31 @ $15.88 | +4.8% on the day (line +4.4%) | -1.6% | +3.8% | +1.4% | +16.1% |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Feb 6 @ $20.86 | +7.2% on the day (line +4.5%) | +2.3% | -6.0% | -12.3% | -24.5% |
| Jan 2, 2026 | Jan 2 @ $27.46 | +4.9% on the day (line +4.5%) | +6.6% | -0.2% | -20.8% | -40.8% |
| Nov 24, 2025 | Nov 24 @ $27.40 | +8.8% on the day (line +4.6%) | +3.4% | +7.7% | +0.3% | -30.3% |
| Nov 10, 2025 | Nov 10 @ $30.54 | +8.3% on the day (line +4.6%) | +1.3% | -11.5% | -11.3% | -32.7% |
| Oct 28, 2025 | Oct 28 @ $31.66 | +5.5% on the day (line +4.6%) | -2.4% | -7.2% | -10.0% | -23.1% |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Oct 20 @ $28.68 | +8.1% on the day (line +4.6%) | +0.2% | +4.6% | -8.5% | -10.6% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.