SOFI
Up on record loan originations, deposits, growth
- SOFI +3.60% on the last session vs SPY +0.17%: +3.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- News: 247wallst.com reports SoFi posted record loan originations, deposits, and member growth. (247wallst.com)
- More than its group: its brokers & fintech peers +1.0% (+0.8 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 14): After its 53 big drops in the past 5 years, SOFI was higher a month later 29 times out of 53; half the outcomes fell between -8.4% and +15.4%. History, not a forecast.
- 13 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 74% positive over the week.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: TD Cowen maintained Hold, lowered target $18.00 → $17.50.
- 2 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,254 | — | -0.2%606/1253 up | 0.0%625/1249 up | -1.9%568/1233 up | -4.2%545/1191 up |
| Big drop Oct 14 (-4.0% or worse) | 54 | — | 0.0%26/53 up | +0.9%28/53 up | +2.4%29/53 up | -0.8%25/51 up |
| Big gain (+4.4% or better) | 62 | — | +0.3%32/62 up | +0.6%32/62 up | +1.9%33/62 up | +14.0%35/59 up |
| Earnings beat | 14 | +0.8%8/14 up | -0.2%7/14 up | -4.0%5/14 up | +0.1%7/14 up | +12.8%7/13 up |
| Earnings miss | 2 | +16.9%2/2 up | -5.3%0/2 up | -8.0%0/2 up | -23.1%0/2 up | +2.2%1/2 up |
| 52-week high | 9 | — | +1.7%5/9 up | +2.1%5/9 up | +2.2%5/9 up | -1.7%4/9 up |
| 52-week low Oct 14 | 3 | — | +0.2%1/2 up | +2.7%2/2 up | +10.0%1/2 up | +31.1%2/2 up |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 9 | — | +1.2%6/9 up | +3.8%5/9 up | +4.1%6/9 up | +29.5%7/9 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 9 | — | -1.4%2/9 up | -2.2%3/9 up | +0.6%5/9 up | +33.3%6/9 up |
| RSI oversold Oct 14 | 7 | — | +2.0%5/6 up | +1.1%3/6 up | -10.2%2/6 up | +1.1%4/6 up |
| RSI overbought | 14 | — | -0.3%5/14 up | -1.0%7/14 up | +3.0%7/14 up | +16.0%8/14 up |
| Volume spike | 15 | — | -1.6%6/15 up | 0.0%7/15 up | +0.6%8/15 up | +6.1%9/15 up |
| Theme selloff Oct 14 hindsight | 47 | — | -0.6%20/46 up | +1.3%25/46 up | -1.2%20/44 up | +3.7%24/43 up |
| Theme rally hindsight | 53 | — | -0.4%23/53 up | +1.0%32/53 up | -1.7%24/53 up | -2.5%23/50 up |
| Mention spike (Trendy) | 46 | — | -1.2%17/46 up | -2.9%16/46 up | -2.8%19/46 up | -2.8%21/44 up |
| Analyst upgrade | 1 | — | -6.2%0/1 up | -1.0%0/1 up | -8.9%0/1 up | -21.4%0/1 up |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | 5 | — | +0.5%3/5 up | -3.4%0/5 up | -2.4%1/5 up | -4.0%2/5 up |
| Insider unplanned sale | 2 | — | -1.4%1/2 up | -2.0%1/2 up | -10.1%0/2 up | -12.8%0/2 up |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is SOFI's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
RSI overbought
The 14-day RSI rises above 70.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 14 | -0.34% | 5 of 14 | +0.11% |
-3%
+11%
|
|
| 1 week | 14 | -0.96% | 7 of 14 | -0.38% |
-10%
+13%
|
|
| 1 month | 14 ≈13 indep. | +2.98% | 7 of 14 | +3.47% |
-37%
+57%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 14 ≈10 indep. | +15.98% | 8 of 14 | +9.55% |
-46%
+68%
|
Range of outcomes: all of SOFI's overbought readings in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
RSI overbought by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 11 | -0.2%11 events vs +0.1% | +1.4%11 events vs +0.5% | +8.2%11 events vs -1.6% | +29.5%11 events vs -4.9% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 2 | -0.7%2 events vs -0.2% | -1.2%2 events vs +0.2% | -0.2%2 events vs +1.1% | -12.2%2 events vs +9.4% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 13 | -0.2%13 events vs -0.1% | +1.4%13 events vs +0.5% | +8.2%13 events vs +0.9% | +25.9%13 events vs -3.5% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | — | — | — | — | — |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 14 | -0.3%14 events vs 0.0% | -1.0%14 events vs +0.2% | +3.0%14 events vs -1.9% | +16.0%14 events vs -2.2% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | — | — | — | — | — |
The same event split by where SOFI stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Latest overbought readings
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2025 | Sep 19 @ $29.51 | RSI 73.7, +5.0% on the day | +1.0% | -5.2% | -2.8% | -10.9% |
| Aug 13, 2025 | Aug 13 @ $23.81 | RSI 70.6, +0.7% on the day | -2.2% | -5.4% | +11.5% | +30.0% |
| Jul 23, 2025 | Jul 23 @ $21.56 | RSI 71.6, +2.8% on the day | -0.2% | +1.4% | +8.2% | +33.3% |
| Jun 26, 2025 | Jun 26 @ $16.77 | RSI 71.5, +4.3% on the day | +2.4% | +10.7% | +25.3% | +67.7% |
| Dec 16, 2024 | Dec 16 @ $16.88 | RSI 70.6, +3.9% on the day | -1.3% | -7.4% | -2.3% | -25.1% |
| Oct 30, 2024 | Oct 30 @ $11.22 | RSI 71.0, +7.2% on the day | -0.4% | +5.3% | +46.3% | +37.3% |
| Oct 11, 2024 | Oct 11 @ $9.01 | RSI 72.1, +4.4% on the day | +11.4% | +13.0% | +56.6% | +60.9% |
| Jul 16, 2024 | Jul 16 @ $7.75 | RSI 74.6, +5.7% on the day | +1.2% | -4.1% | -14.7% | +29.5% |
| Dec 13, 2023 | Dec 13 @ $8.94 | RSI 71.2, +12.4% on the day | +5.9% | +4.1% | -13.6% | -21.4% |
| Jul 19, 2023 | Jul 19 @ $9.85 | RSI 70.4, +2.9% on the day | -2.8% | -3.4% | -17.7% | -16.2% |
| May 31, 2023 | May 31 @ $6.94 | RSI 72.9, +15.1% on the day | -1.7% | +11.5% | +20.2% | +25.9% |
| Jan 17, 2023 | Jan 17 @ $5.64 | RSI 71.3, +3.7% on the day | -1.4% | +2.7% | +28.5% | +6.0% |
| Aug 3, 2022 | Aug 3 @ $8.23 | RSI 72.7, +28.4% on the day | 0.0% | -5.1% | -28.9% | -30.4% |
| Nov 11, 2021 | Nov 11 @ $22.97 | RSI 74.7, +12.5% on the day | -0.9% | -10.4% | -36.5% | -46.0% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.